River Flood Warning 51, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDER FIRST FEW HOURS OF TAFS.

MAIN LINE OF STORMS HAS PUSHED EAST OF METRO TAF SITES...BUT
INTERMITTENT LIGHTNING CONTINUES WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF TRAILING
PRECIPITATION. LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS FREQUENT THAN
EARLIER IN THE EVENT...BUT THUNDER MENTION CONTINUES THROUGH 10Z
(5 AM CDT). AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING CURRENTLY THROUGH 08Z (3 AM
CDT)...SO WILL ASSESS NEED FOR CONTINUATION BEFORE 09Z AMENDMENTS.
STRONG STORMS TRAINING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY
PASS EAST OF METRO TAF SITES. WITH UPPER SYSTEM LINGERING TO THE
WEST...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST. AS SUCH...LIGHT RAIN
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH...BUT ANTICIPATE A
DIMINISHING LIGHTNING THREAT AS AXIS OF HEAVIER ACTIVITY SHIFTS
EAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY.

WACO...
NEARLY CONTINUOUS HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT WACO AS CELLS TRAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY. TAF IS MORE OPTIMISTIC...BUT AIRPORT IS INACTIVE
REGARDLESS. THE LINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AIRFIELD
BEFORE THE TOWER OPENS IN THE MORNING...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY
MAY STILL IMPACT EARLY MORNING ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/

POWERFUL UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ONE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING
ACROSS WEST TEXAS NOW AND IS LIKELY PROVIDING LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ARE BEHIND A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ARE LIKELY
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED HOWEVER GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...IF YOU WANT
BEASTLY SURFACE BASED STORMS...THE DEEP NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH EASTWARD COMPONENT TO KEEP THESE STORMS OUT
OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. THIS MAY CHANGE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IF THIS BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN. ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND TURBULENT MIXING IS LIKELY AIDING IN PREVENTING
LOCAL CONVERGENCE FROM BEING SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. FOR THE SHORT TERM...AND INTO TONIGHT...
HAVE FAVORED A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL SHOW THE MAIN LINE CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL
HAVE HIGH POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...MIXING OF 50 TO 60KT LLJ PERSISTS THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER DARK.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AT 7.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES AND
ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...HOWEVER WILL ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 7PM
TUESDAY NOW INSTEAD OF MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
WILL RETAIN SOME LOW POPS INTO WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW EJECTS
EASTWARD LATE WEEK WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  69  50  73  50 /  30  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              47  67  48  76  48 /  20  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             50  66  48  74  50 /  40  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            46  69  46  71  45 /  40  30  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          44  69  47  72  48 /  40  30  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            51  69  50  74  52 /  30  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           47  70  49  74  50 /  30  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         48  67  49  75  50 /  20  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            47  71  47  73  48 /  20  20  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     45  67  45  73  47 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

25/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
407 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
407 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO
THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
126 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WACO                    31.55N  97.15W
03/20/2012                   MCLENNAN           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS ROADS ARE CLOSED IN THE CITY OF WACO AND ONE
            HIGH WATER RESCUE IS ONGOING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
202 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW CAMERON            30.83N  96.99W
03/20/2012                   MILAM              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN AND BLOCKED THE ROADWAY
            AT THE INTERSECTION OF FM 1600 AND CR 218.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
229 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW CORSICANA         32.08N  96.52W
03/20/2012                   NAVARRO            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NW COUNTY ROAD 2005 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
241 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S ROCKDALE            30.62N  97.00W
03/20/2012                   MILAM              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            A LARGE TREE WAS BLOCKING FM 908 SOUTH OF ROCKDALE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
254 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

TXZ122-135-147-148-200830-
FREESTONE TX-HENDERSON TX-VAN ZANDT TX-ANDERSON TX-
254 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  FREESTONE COUNTY
  WESTERN ANDERSON COUNTY
  HENDERSON COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 254 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ATHENS TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TEAGUE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ATHENS...BROWNSBORO...
CANEY CITY...EDOM...FAIRFIELD...MALAKOFF...TEAGUE AND FAIRFIELD LAKE
STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3162 9571 3165 9575 3162 9575 3160 9577
      3162 9579 3141 9623 3163 9637 3195 9619
      3202 9605 3208 9607 3209 9611 3242 9592
      3242 9549 3238 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0754Z 251DEG 21KT 3236 9575 3153 9620

07/BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
257 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

TXZ161-162-175-200830-
LEON TX-LIMESTONE TX-ROBERTSON TX-
257 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY
  SOUTHWESTERN LEON COUNTY
  ROBERTSON COUNTY

AT 257 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TEAGUE TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF HEARNE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE FRANKLIN AND HEARNE.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3074 9663 3076 9661 3078 9665 3083 9665
      3164 9647 3144 9625 3142 9625 3142 9622
      3105 9609 3098 9619 3093 9632 3083 9639
      3072 9655 3071 9660
TIME...MOT...LOC 0757Z 270DEG 21KT 3155 9635 3072 9659