Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
636 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION...
LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH METROPLEX TAF SITES NOW WITH NW
WINDS 15G25KT. EXPECT +TSRA TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
BEGINNING TO ARRIVE INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AND WE SHOULD SEE
ELEVATED CONVECTION BEGIN TO EXPAND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY 3Z. WILL KEEP VCTS IN THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO +RA AND VCTS BY MIDNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING TUESDAY AS ANVIL PRECIPITATION AFFECTS TAF SITES
FROM EXPANDING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. PRIMARY WARM SECTOR WILL
BE EAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND THUS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO
BE PRIMARILY EAST. STILL CANT RULE OUT ELEVATED HAIL STORMS BUT
THREAT IS LOW. WINDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE...LIKELY SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
THEN BACK TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. CIGS AND VSBY WILL BY IFR IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...BUT GENERALLY VFR MID-LATE EVENING...BUT BACK
TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY RAIN.

FOR WACO...SEVERE THREAT A BIT HIGHER WITH STORMS LIKELY TO AFFECT
WACO FROM 1Z-4Z...AND PREVAILING RAIN/VCTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THEREAFTER.

FOR TOMORROW RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH VFR CIGS PREVAILING AND WINDS
SWINGING BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/

POWERFUL UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ONE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING
ACROSS WEST TEXAS NOW AND IS LIKELY PROVIDING LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ARE BEHIND A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ARE LIKELY
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED HOWEVER GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...IF YOU WANT
BEASTLY SURFACE BASED STORMS...THE DEEP NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH EASTWARD COMPONENT TO KEEP THESE STORMS OUT
OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. THIS MAY CHANGE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IF THIS BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN. ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND TURBULENT MIXING IS LIKELY AIDING IN PREVENTING
LOCAL CONVERGENCE FROM BEING SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. FOR THE SHORT TERM...AND INTO TONIGHT...
HAVE FAVORED A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL SHOW THE MAIN LINE CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL
HAVE HIGH POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...MIXING OF 50 TO 60KT LLJ PERSISTS THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER DARK.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AT 7.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES AND
ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...HOWEVER WILL ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 7PM
TUESDAY NOW INSTEAD OF MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
WILL RETAIN SOME LOW POPS INTO WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW EJECTS
EASTWARD LATE WEEK WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  70  49  69  50 / 100  70  30  20  10
WACO, TX              56  71  47  67  48 / 100  60  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             60  66  50  66  48 / 100  90  40  30  10
DENTON, TX            54  69  46  69  46 / 100  60  40  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          56  68  44  69  47 / 100  80  40  30  10
DALLAS, TX            56  70  51  69  50 / 100  70  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           60  69  47  70  49 / 100  80  30  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  70  48  67  49 / 100  80  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            56  71  47  71  47 / 100  60  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  72  45  67  45 /  80  50  30  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-156>162-174-175.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-131>135-142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
407 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
407 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO
THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1009 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXZ145-146-158>161-200345-
FALLS TX-HILL TX-LIMESTONE TX-MCLENNAN TX-NAVARRO TX-BELL TX-
1009 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BELL COUNTY
  FALLS COUNTY
  EASTERN HILL COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY
  MCLENNAN COUNTY
  SOUTHWESTERN NAVARRO COUNTY

AT 1009 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES EAST OF
HILLSBORO TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF TEMPLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BARRY...BELLMEAD...BEVERLY
HILLS...BLOOMING GROVE...BRUCEVILLE-EDDY...BYNUM...CARL'S CORNER...
COOLIDGE...DAWSON...GOLINDA...HALLSBURG...HEWITT...HILLSBORO...
HUBBARD...LACY-LAKEVIEW...LORENA...LOTT...MARLIN...MART...MCGREGOR...
MOODY...MORGAN'S POINT RESORT...NORTHCREST...RIESEL...ROBINSON...
TEMPLE...TROY...WACO...WEST AND WOODWAY.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3107 9756 3130 9746 3132 9742 3134 9744
      3210 9710 3211 9698 3206 9693 3212 9681
      3214 9644 3112 9687
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 257DEG 26KT 3198 9688 3115 9728

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1012 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     HAIL             1 W WACO                31.55N  97.17W
03/19/2012  E0.75 INCH       MCLENNAN           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN WEST WACO ON HIGHWAY 84 AT THE
            RICHLAND MALL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1031 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXZ134-145-146-159>161-200400-
ELLIS TX-FALLS TX-HILL TX-LIMESTONE TX-MCLENNAN TX-NAVARRO TX-
1031 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY
  NORTHERN FALLS COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN HILL COUNTY
  WESTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY
  EASTERN MCLENNAN COUNTY
  WESTERN NAVARRO COUNTY

AT 1032 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ENNIS TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ALMA...ANGUS...BARDWELL...
BARRY...BELLMEAD...BLOOMING GROVE...COOLIDGE...CORSICANA...DAWSON...
ENNIS...GOLINDA...HALLSBURG...HUBBARD...MART...RIESEL AND ROBINSON.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3124 9725 3227 9683 3243 9645 3241 9643
      3239 9643 3235 9646 3230 9631 3141 9663
      3120 9723
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 241DEG 26KT 3223 9667 3138 9698

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1037 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CORYELL CITY            31.55N  97.62W
03/19/2012                   CORYELL            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORTED OVER SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS IN CORYELL
            COUNTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1058 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXZ156>158-200430-
LAMPASAS TX-BELL TX-CORYELL TX-
1058 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN BELL COUNTY
  SOUTH CENTRAL CORYELL COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN LAMPASAS COUNTY

AT 1058 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF BERTRAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COPPERAS COVE...FORT HOOD...
HARKER HEIGHTS...KILLEEN AND NOLANVILLE.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM. IN ADDITION...VERY FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO
BEING DETECTED.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3089 9775 3100 9790 3103 9792 3103 9797
      3106 9816 3135 9784 3110 9745 3088 9772
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 226DEG 36KT 3092 9802

07/BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1115 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N BAILEY              33.44N  96.17W
03/19/2012                   FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            WATER COVERING ROADWAY 1 N OF BAILEY