Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
636 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.AVIATION...
LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH METROPLEX TAF SITES NOW WITH NW
WINDS 15G25KT. EXPECT +TSRA TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
BEGINNING TO ARRIVE INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AND WE SHOULD SEE
ELEVATED CONVECTION BEGIN TO EXPAND OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY 3Z. WILL KEEP VCTS IN THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO +RA AND VCTS BY MIDNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING TUESDAY AS ANVIL PRECIPITATION AFFECTS TAF SITES
FROM EXPANDING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. PRIMARY WARM SECTOR WILL
BE EAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND THUS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO
BE PRIMARILY EAST. STILL CANT RULE OUT ELEVATED HAIL STORMS BUT
THREAT IS LOW. WINDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE...LIKELY SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
THEN BACK TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. CIGS AND VSBY WILL BY IFR IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...BUT GENERALLY VFR MID-LATE EVENING...BUT BACK
TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY RAIN.

FOR WACO...SEVERE THREAT A BIT HIGHER WITH STORMS LIKELY TO AFFECT
WACO FROM 1Z-4Z...AND PREVAILING RAIN/VCTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THEREAFTER.

FOR TOMORROW RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH VFR CIGS PREVAILING AND WINDS
SWINGING BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/

POWERFUL UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ONE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING
ACROSS WEST TEXAS NOW AND IS LIKELY PROVIDING LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ARE BEHIND A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ARE LIKELY
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED HOWEVER GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...IF YOU WANT
BEASTLY SURFACE BASED STORMS...THE DEEP NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH EASTWARD COMPONENT TO KEEP THESE STORMS OUT
OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. THIS MAY CHANGE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IF THIS BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN. ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND TURBULENT MIXING IS LIKELY AIDING IN PREVENTING
LOCAL CONVERGENCE FROM BEING SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. FOR THE SHORT TERM...AND INTO TONIGHT...
HAVE FAVORED A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL SHOW THE MAIN LINE CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL
HAVE HIGH POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...MIXING OF 50 TO 60KT LLJ PERSISTS THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER DARK.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AT 7.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES AND
ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...HOWEVER WILL ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 7PM
TUESDAY NOW INSTEAD OF MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
WILL RETAIN SOME LOW POPS INTO WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW EJECTS
EASTWARD LATE WEEK WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  70  49  69  50 / 100  70  30  20  10
WACO, TX              56  71  47  67  48 / 100  60  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             60  66  50  66  48 / 100  90  40  30  10
DENTON, TX            54  69  46  69  46 / 100  60  40  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          56  68  44  69  47 / 100  80  40  30  10
DALLAS, TX            56  70  51  69  50 / 100  70  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           60  69  47  70  49 / 100  80  30  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  70  48  67  49 / 100  80  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            56  71  47  71  47 / 100  60  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  72  45  67  45 /  80  50  30  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-156>162-174-175.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-131>135-142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
407 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
407 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO
THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1115 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N BAILEY              33.44N  96.17W
03/19/2012                   FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            WATER COVERING ROADWAY 1 N OF BAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1203 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 PM     FLOOD            KILLEEN                 31.13N  97.73W
03/19/2012                   BELL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANDATORY EVACUATIONS AT OAK SPRING ESTATES MOBILE HOME
            PARK IN W KILLEEN DUE TO NOLAN CREEK FLOODING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WHITE HALL              31.22N  97.45W
03/19/2012                   BELL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING REPORTED AT SH 36 AND AYCOCK IN WHITEHALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1208 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     FLOOD            WINDOM                  33.57N  96.00W
03/19/2012                   FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            FLOODING REPORTED AT 56 AND WINDHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     FLOOD            1 S HONEY GROVE         33.57N  95.92W
03/20/2012                   FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            A FEW INCHES OF WATER WAS OVER HIGHWAY 34 APPROXIMATELY
            1 MILE SOUTH OF HONEY GROVE. ALSO, FIELDS ALONG THE
            HIGHWAY WERE FLOODED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1227 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW WOODWAY            31.51N  97.21W
03/20/2012                   MCLENNAN           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER COVERING ROADS IN W WACO AROUND HEWITT DR AND
            CHAPTEL RD. CARS HAVE FLOODED OUT.