Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Fort Worth, TX

468 
WGUS74 KFWD 200803
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

TXC349-200900-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-120320T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NAVARRO TX-
303 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
NAVARRO COUNTY...

RAINFALL RATES HAVE DIMINISHED TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR AS 
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER 
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL 
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NAVARRO 
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW
MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADS OR IF THE ROAD HAS BEEN DAMAGED OR WASHED
AWAY. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL
WATER RECEDES.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 9646 3180 9655 3181 9671 3207 9690
      3233 9639 3230 9630 3226 9628 3225 9624
      3220 9620 3221 9615 3220 9616 3217 9618
      3215 9610 3209 9612 3208 9607 3202 9605

$$


92

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDER FIRST FEW HOURS OF TAFS.

MAIN LINE OF STORMS HAS PUSHED EAST OF METRO TAF SITES...BUT
INTERMITTENT LIGHTNING CONTINUES WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF TRAILING
PRECIPITATION. LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS FREQUENT THAN
EARLIER IN THE EVENT...BUT THUNDER MENTION CONTINUES THROUGH 10Z
(5 AM CDT). AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING CURRENTLY THROUGH 08Z (3 AM
CDT)...SO WILL ASSESS NEED FOR CONTINUATION BEFORE 09Z AMENDMENTS.
STRONG STORMS TRAINING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY
PASS EAST OF METRO TAF SITES. WITH UPPER SYSTEM LINGERING TO THE
WEST...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST. AS SUCH...LIGHT RAIN
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH...BUT ANTICIPATE A
DIMINISHING LIGHTNING THREAT AS AXIS OF HEAVIER ACTIVITY SHIFTS
EAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY.

WACO...
NEARLY CONTINUOUS HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT WACO AS CELLS TRAIN
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS/VSBY. TAF IS MORE OPTIMISTIC...BUT AIRPORT IS INACTIVE
REGARDLESS. THE LINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AIRFIELD
BEFORE THE TOWER OPENS IN THE MORNING...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY
MAY STILL IMPACT EARLY MORNING ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012/

POWERFUL UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ONE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING
ACROSS WEST TEXAS NOW AND IS LIKELY PROVIDING LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ARE BEHIND A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ARE LIKELY
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED HOWEVER GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...IF YOU WANT
BEASTLY SURFACE BASED STORMS...THE DEEP NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH EASTWARD COMPONENT TO KEEP THESE STORMS OUT
OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. THIS MAY CHANGE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IF THIS BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN. ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY AND TURBULENT MIXING IS LIKELY AIDING IN PREVENTING
LOCAL CONVERGENCE FROM BEING SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. FOR THE SHORT TERM...AND INTO TONIGHT...
HAVE FAVORED A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL SHOW THE MAIN LINE CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AS NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL
HAVE HIGH POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AS FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...MIXING OF 50 TO 60KT LLJ PERSISTS THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER DARK.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AT 7.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES AND
ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...HOWEVER WILL ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 7PM
TUESDAY NOW INSTEAD OF MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
WILL RETAIN SOME LOW POPS INTO WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW EJECTS
EASTWARD LATE WEEK WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  69  50  73  50 /  30  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              47  67  48  76  48 /  20  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             50  66  48  74  50 /  40  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            46  69  46  71  45 /  40  30  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          44  69  47  72  48 /  40  30  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            51  69  50  74  52 /  30  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           47  70  49  74  50 /  30  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         48  67  49  75  50 /  20  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            47  71  47  73  48 /  20  20  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     45  67  45  73  47 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

25/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
407 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
407 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO
THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1203 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 PM     FLOOD            KILLEEN                 31.13N  97.73W
03/19/2012                   BELL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANDATORY EVACUATIONS AT OAK SPRING ESTATES MOBILE HOME
            PARK IN W KILLEEN DUE TO NOLAN CREEK FLOODING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WHITE HALL              31.22N  97.45W
03/19/2012                   BELL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING REPORTED AT SH 36 AND AYCOCK IN WHITEHALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1208 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     FLOOD            WINDOM                  33.57N  96.00W
03/19/2012                   FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            FLOODING REPORTED AT 56 AND WINDHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     FLOOD            1 S HONEY GROVE         33.57N  95.92W
03/20/2012                   FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            A FEW INCHES OF WATER WAS OVER HIGHWAY 34 APPROXIMATELY
            1 MILE SOUTH OF HONEY GROVE. ALSO, FIELDS ALONG THE
            HIGHWAY WERE FLOODED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1227 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW WOODWAY            31.51N  97.21W
03/20/2012                   MCLENNAN           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER COVERING ROADS IN W WACO AROUND HEWITT DR AND
            CHAPTEL RD. CARS HAVE FLOODED OUT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DALLAS                  32.77N  96.78W
03/19/2012                   DALLAS             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HIGHWATER RESCUE AT WHITE ROCK CREEK (NORTHWEST HWY AND
            LAWTHER)