Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
301 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOCUS DURING THE PERIOD IS THE NEAR TERM AND ON SEVERE AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM NEAR 500J/KG IN EXTREME NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...TO
2000J/KG OVER PRICE/IRON COUNTIES...AND THE 3 HOURLY IMAGE SHOW
VALUES WERE ON THE INCREASE. BEST 0-6KM SHEAR LAGS THE
FRONTS...BUT WAS STILL 30-35KT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES IS MAXIMIZED OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO EXTREME EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WITH BOTH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE HIGHEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN. MODELS ALSO FORECAST INCREASING FGEN OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...AND THAT EXTENDS FURTHER WEST OVER MUCH OF OUR MINNESOTA
CWA. EVIDENCE OF THIS IS SEEN IN INCREASE IN SHOWERS. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH TO GO WITH SOME HIGHER POPS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
INTENSITY WILL BE LESS THAN AREAS FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WHERE STABILITIES ARE MUCH LOWER.

WE GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

UPPER TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL BE QUITE BIT LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING WARM AND DRY. A
FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO PARTS OF NW WI ON FRIDAY. THEN...BY SATURDAY...A
WEAK 500MB S/W WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND BRING IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES BY ACROSS SRN
MN. THE PRECIP WILL BE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE A FIRM HOLD
ON THE NORTHLAND FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 70S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SFC LOW MOVING UP THE NORTH SHORE TO START THE TAF...WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT SITTING JUST EAST OF SUPERIOR DOWN INTO THE TWIN CITIES.
GIVEN THE FRONTAL POSITION...HYR IS THE ONLY TAF EXPECTED TO DEAL
WITH TSRA ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD...AND THAT SHOULD MOSTLY BE DONE
AROUND 21Z. MAIN UPPER WAVE THAT HAS BEEN FORCING ALL OF THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THE PAST 30 HOURS OR SO IS NOW WORKING INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE DLH AIRSPACE UNTIL
ABOUT 12Z THU. OUTSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD
BE DONE FOR THE AREA...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE CHANCE FOR
SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT DLH/HYR AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AT INL OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. AREA WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN SKY
FORECASTS DECREASES WITH DISTANCE FROM THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...WITH MORE VARIABILITY IN CIGS EXPECTED AS YOU GET CLOSER TO
BRD. FOR WINDS...FRONT WILL FINALLY TURN HYR WINDS OVER TO THE WEST
AROUND 21Z. NE MN WILL SEE NE TO N WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
WORKS ALONG THE NORTHSHORE...WITH NW WINDS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD
THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW MOVES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. FOR
THURSDAY...MIXING IN THE MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME NW WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  72  52  72 /  60  20  20  20
INL  49  72  50  75 /  40  30  20  20
BRD  54  75  54  76 /  20  20  10   0
HYR  53  74  52  73 /  60  20  20  20
ASX  54  73  51  74 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM....TENTINGER
AVIATION...MPG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
433 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-211030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
433 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT LIFE THREATENING FLOOD EVENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TWIN PORTS...NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED IN THE TWIN PORTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
TODAY. DUE TO UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL
RATES AT TIMES WILL APPROACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE EXACERBATED BY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
EAST OF A LINE FROM SIREN TO BAYFIELD WISCONSIN. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-211030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
433 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER THE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

CANNON

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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