Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR IS UNDER-RUNNING A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL HOT
TEMPERATURE CAP. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THAT CAP RUNS ALONG A BRD-
DLH LINE THEN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RAIN IS
DIFFICULT TO UNLIKELY SOUTH OF THAT CAP...EVEN WITH DEW POINTS
ABOVE 20C. AS THE HOT HUMID AIR FLOWS NORTHWARD FROM UNDER THE
CAP...IT IS FORCED UP OVER A SHALLOW AND VERY DENSE MARITIME AIR
MASS...WITH STRONG AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS UNDERRUNNING...THEN STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING...
ALONG WITH OUR LOCATION IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE ZONE OF A 130 KT
HIGH-LEVEL JET...IMPLYING VERY STRONG UPWARD MOTION...WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VIOLENT AND INTENSE...POSSIBLY TORNADIC
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2 INCHES OR MORE AND THE
AFORE-MENTIONED DYNAMICS...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
FLOOD-PRODUCING DELUGES WITH VERY LARGE BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALLS.

.AVIATION...06/20/00Z ISSUANCE...
NORTH OF THE BRAINERD LAKES AND CASS LAKES THROUGH DULUTH...VFR
WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN CLOUDS IN RAIN THIS EVENING DECREASING TO
LOW- END MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING
EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...EXCEPT FOR THE
SUPERIOR AREA AND UPPER ST CROIX VALLEY. VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR
IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...DECREASING TO HIGH-END MVFR EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IN BETWEEN...BRAINERD LAKES...CASS LAKES...SOUTHERN
IRON RANGE...THROUGH THE UPPER ST CROIX VALLEY AND THE DULUTH AND
SUPERIOR AREA...LIFR IN INTENSE AND VIOLENT THUNDERSTORMS AND
TORRENTIAL RAIN. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES
MAY DEVELOP IN THIS MIDDLE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONCERNING ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...

ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE PARK
RAPIDS AND BEMIDJI AREAS EASTWARD TO LAKE SUPERIOR APPEAR TO BE
FOCUSING ON THE NORTHWARD EDGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. COINCIDENT WITH THIS
GRADIENT..THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY ROBUST AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE 925-850 MB LAYER EXTENDING FROM NEAR ABERDEEN SD..ENEWD TO JUST
SOUTH OF DULUTH. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR
MAINTENANCE OF THIS AXIS OF STORMS AND ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT..AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS NEAR
THIS SAME AREA.

OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE RATHER INTENSE HP SUPERCELL STORM OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TWO HARBORS AND THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. THIS
STORM WILL MOVE BACK ON SHORE OVER THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND
APOSTLE ISLANDS THROUGH 530 PM WITH A THREAT FOR GOLF BALL OR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS UNDERNEATH THE BOWING RFD GUST FRONT AS
EVIDENCED BY THE SOUTHWARD EXTENDING APPENDAGE IN KDLH RADAR DATA.
DUAL-POL RADAR DATA FROM KDLH INDICATES VERY LOW CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT VALUES SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL >2 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE.

UNLESS INTENSIFICATION OCCURS..THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS BETWEEN WALKER AND LAKE WINNIBIGOSHISH AND THE IRON RANGE
CITIES WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES..WITH A LESSER THREAT OF PEA TO DIME HAIL AND WINDS UP
TO 45 MPH.

A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW DULUTH
CWA LATER THIS EVENING AS ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  72  53  72 /  80  70  20  10
INL  57  71  49  71 /  70  40  10  20
BRD  63  71  55  74 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  69  78  54  76 /  80  70  40  10
ASX  63  79  55  74 /  70  70  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-019>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ001-006.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>147.

&&

SHORT TERM...EOM
AVIATION...EOM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
948 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-201030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
948 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT EITHER...WITH THE THREAT HIGHEST FROM NEAR MILLE LACS
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NEAR AITKIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-201030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
948 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
NEARSHORE WATER OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
AND HIGH WAVES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT IN THESE AREAS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
MARINE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE DULUTH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MELDE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
701 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ISLAND LAKE             47.82N 94.24W
06/19/2012  M2.65 INCH       ITASCA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
704 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MNZ012-019-020-037-200015-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN
LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
704 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

...ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING AREAS FROM ISLAND LAKE TO
TWO HARBORS...

AT 702 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ISLAND LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED... AND STAY AWAY FROM
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER CROSSES A ROAD!

LAT...LON 4732 9182 4698 9171 4696 9175 4687 9224
      4709 9229

 MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
707 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MNZ035>037-200030-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-
707 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING NORTHERN AITKIN COUNTY...

AT 706 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PALISADE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BIG SANDY LAKE...     SHESHEBEE...          TAMARACK...
  BALSAM...             WRIGHT...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED AND STAY AWAY FROM
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS.  DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS
WHERE WATER COVERS A ROAD!

LAT...LON 4697 9294 4657 9294 4650 9367 4685 9357

 MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
714 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ALBORN                  46.97N 92.58W
06/19/2012  M4.40 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4.4 INCHES SO FAR.

&&

MELDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
716 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     FLOOD            1 E TWO HARBORS         47.03N 91.65W
06/19/2012                   LAKE               MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            DITCHES AT SIDE OF ROAD ARE FULL, AND WATER IS COMING
            ONTO THE SHOULDER OF THE ROAD. WATER LEVEL IS NOT INTO
            THE TRAFFIC LANES YET.

&&

RS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
717 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ISLAND LAKE             47.82N 94.24W
06/19/2012  M2.54 INCH       ITASCA             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

RS