Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

.AVIATION...06/20/06Z...
FOR THE RAINY RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN IRON RANGE...VFR WITH
SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOST OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...EAST OF BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND THE UPPER ST
CROIX VALLEY...VFR WITH MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DECREASING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE AREAS IN BETWEEN...LIFR IN CLOUDS...TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND IMBEDDED VIOLENT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SITUATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS A HEAVY RAIN EVENT OF REMARKABLE
SCOPE. THE SITUATION TRANSITIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN JUST NORTH OF A
STRONG WARM FRONT...ABOUT NOON WEDNESDAY...TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG AN
ACTIVE AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONCERNING ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

**POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD EVENT
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA**

INITIAL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE INTO
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NW WISCONSIN AS OF 915 PM CDT.
HOWEVER..SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ST
CLOUD..EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR SIREN AND HAYWARD..TO JUST SOUTH
OF IRONWOOD.  VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 925-850 MB
LAYER REMAINS ANCHORED PARALLEL TO AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NEAR DULUTH AND IS BEING
ENHANCED BY INCREASING SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN WHICH
CONTINUES TO FOCUS A FEED OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND COPIOUS
MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES) INTO THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION ZONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED AND PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT FROM THE ALEXANDRIA AREA TO BRAINERD AND
JUST WEST OF DULUTH.

WHILE THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME SMALL RISK OF ADDITIONAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PER SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 1226
AND 1227..THE PRIMARY RISK REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND.  THIS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS.  FLOODING THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AS LOW LEVEL COOLER OUTFLOW HAS
PUSHED EFFECTIVE FOCUSING BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE BRAINERD TO
DULUTH CORRIDOR /CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT/..WHICH MAY ACT TO FOCUS
HEAVIEST RATES TO THE SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE CITIES.  AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE DULUTH AREA AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE..ADDITIONAL
TSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN THE
HOUR.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING AND WATER COVERED ROADS HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED FROM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA..AND WE CANNOT EMPHASIZE
STRONGLY ENOUGH THE HIGH END NATURE OF THE FLOODING THREAT
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE DULUTH AREA AND ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR..WHERE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED
BY 1000-1500 FOOT TERRAIN DROP AND FLOOD WATERS RUSHING DOWN THE
HILL.  STORM SEWERS IN DULUTH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS EXPLODING FROM
EXCESS WATER PRESSURE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HILL..ALONG WITH FLOODING
IN THE TUNNELS ON INTERSTATE 35 IN DULUTH.  ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
ALSO AFFECTING ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE..AND ANY
CAMPGROUNDS AND RIVER/ROAD INTERACTIONS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE COULD
BECOME POTENTIAL DEATH TRAPS OVERNIGHT WHEN THE FLOOD THREAT IS
EXACERBATED BY DARKNESS AND LACK OF VISIBILITY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  72  52  74 /  20  10  10  20
INL  49  71  50  74 /  10  20  20  20
BRD  55  74  54  78 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  54  76  52  77 /  40  10  20  20
ASX  55  74  51  73 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-019>021-025-
     026-033>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ001-006.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ141>147.

&&

SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM....EOM
AVIATION...EOM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
948 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-201030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
948 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT EITHER...WITH THE THREAT HIGHEST FROM NEAR MILLE LACS
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NEAR AITKIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-201030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
948 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
NEARSHORE WATER OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
AND HIGH WAVES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT IN THESE AREAS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
MARINE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE DULUTH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MELDE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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