Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

.AVIATION...06/20/12Z ISSUANCE...
LOW-END MVFR IN CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR IN RAIN THIS
EVENING IMPROVING TO MVFR BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012/

..LIFE THREATENING FLOODING/HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES EARLY
THIS MORNING NEAR TWIN PORTS AND PARTS OF NORTH SHORE...

SHORT TERM...DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS TWIN PORTS
VICINITY AND ALONG NORTH SHORE. EVACUATIONS OCCURRING ALONG ST
LOUIS RIVER IN FOND DU LAC SECTION OF WEST DULUTH. DUAL POL
ESTIMATES OF 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM AITKIN THROUGH CARLTON...SRN ST
LOUIS...AND EXTREME SRN LAKE COUNTIES. PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ANOMALOUS PWATS WITHIN VERY DEEP MSTR
TRANSPORT REGION ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS STATIONARY LOW LVL BDRY.
TRAINING ECHOES OCCURRING FROM BRD LAKES TOWARDS SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH RAINFALL RATES OF NEAR AN INCH/HR...A DECREASE
FROM EARLIER EVENING RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCH/HR. FAST FLOW ALOFT IS
KEEPING EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN CORES MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AT THE
MOMENT.

TODAY...DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
ERN MN/WRN WI ZONES AS INVERTED SFC TROUGH PROVIDES LOW LVL INFLOW
ACROSS EAST/WEST LOW LVL THETAE GRADIENT FROM HINCKLEY TO SOUTH
SHORE. AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING HIGH THREAT OF LIFE THREATENING
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS EXCESSIVE RUNOFF OCCURS FROM TOTALLY
SATURATED SOILS. OF MAJOR CONCERN IS THE PROSPECT THAT NEXT ROUND
OF EXCESSIVE RAIN DEVELOPING OVER ERN DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT
REPOSITIONING OF RRQ OF 30H JET WILL FAVOR ENHANCEMENT OF HEAVIER
PRECIP OVER WRN CWA BY MIDDAY...AND THEN A TRANSLATION EAST AS SFC
COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS MOVE EAST. WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO
EXTEND FLOOD WARNINGS BEYOND NOON IF MAJORITY OF SODAK CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM HOLDS TOGETHER.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY...

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH THE STRONG...ACTIVE FRONT MOVING THE
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND VIOLENT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THE RAIN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW...SURFACE
AND ALOFT...THROUGH SATURDAY.  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S...WITH NEAR 50 AT NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA
WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY SATURDAY AND BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.  THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CHILL THE LAKESHORE DOWN INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S WELL INLAND.
THE DRY FLOW WILL END THE SHOWERS AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  72  52  74 /  60  20  20  20
INL  49  71  50  74 /  60  30  20  20
BRD  55  75  53  77 /  10  20  10  10
HYR  54  75  52  77 /  60  10  20  20
ASX  55  72  51  73 /  60  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-
     019>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ001-006.

LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM....EOM
AVIATION...EOM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
433 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-211030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
433 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT LIFE THREATENING FLOOD EVENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TWIN PORTS...NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED IN THE TWIN PORTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
TODAY. DUE TO UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...RAINFALL
RATES AT TIMES WILL APPROACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE EXACERBATED BY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
EAST OF A LINE FROM SIREN TO BAYFIELD WISCONSIN. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-211030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
433 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER THE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

CANNON

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1012 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 AM     FLOOD            CLOQUET                 46.73N 92.49W
06/20/2012                   CARLTON            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SPAFFORD CAMPING AREA EVACUATED...ST LOUIS RIVER.

&&

RS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1035 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

MNZ019-037-201600-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
1035 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTH OF TWIG...

AT 1029 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAGINAW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. PENNY TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR SAGINAW WITH
THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TAFT BY 1045 AM...
  FREDENBERG AND SHAW BY 1050 AM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4720 9229 4693 9196 4679 9247 4692 9259

TENTINGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1039 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1037 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ALBORN                  46.97N 92.58W
06/20/2012  M8.34 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGOHDE

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