Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND TORNADO
WATCH #313 CONTINUES THRU 01Z THIS EVENING. LARGE CAPE VALUES AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
ORGANIZED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THRU THIS EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT (SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW). WE ARE ALSO MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF
TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS VERMONT
AND PLEASE REFER TO ACTIVE WARNINGS FOR SPECIFIC THREATS.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENS TOWARD MIDNIGHT WHILE ALSO
PUSHING EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY. JUST MENTIONED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME DRYING LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID-UPR 50S BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY TRENDS DRIER WITH WESTERLY
850MB FLOW. WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY
BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND IT WILL
BE LESS HUMID. WE/LL SEE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPR 40S TO
AROUND 50 BY AFTERNOON.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY ON BALANCE FOR THE
DAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATED THE EXTENDED FORECAST EARLY
TODAY MAINLY RELYING ON HPC GUIDANCE TO FREE UP MORE FORECASTERS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE EAST SATURDAY WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN
CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

***VARIABLE CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG TO
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/HAIL***

THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR MVFR COND WITH TRW THRU THIS
TIME. CEILINGS 030-050 WITH VSBY 3-5SM AT TIMES. AFT 06Z WED...FG
WILL DEVELOP WITH 2-5SM AT TIMES...THEN VFR BY 12Z-14Z WITH SCT
MID CLD. WINDS SSW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS BFR 00Z WED.
LGT/VAR AFT 06Z WED...BECM SSW 5-10KTS BY 13Z-14Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED.
COULD SEE WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS WED/THU AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH PASSG...BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR/FG AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE 06-12Z AT KMPV/KSLK.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHCS FOR WIDESPREAD RAFL WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE STORMS PRODUCED
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2". THE EARLY MORNING
HEAVY RAIN HAS PRIMED SOME RIVER BASINS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING AS SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AT 1915Z...WE
ARE PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT TRAINING TSTMS FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY EWD INTO CENTRAL VT. ALL OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT MAY BECOME
PROBLEMATIC FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL END AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JN
HYDROLOGY...BANACOS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-301645-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
1233 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 313 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
307 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             1 W ENOSBURG FALLS      44.91N  72.83W
05/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200083

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             EDEN MILLS              44.71N  72.54W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       LAMOILLE           VT   TOWN OFFICE

            AT LEAST QUARTER-SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200084

SLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             LOWELL                  44.80N  72.45W
05/29/2012  M1.25 INCH       ORLEANS            VT   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200085

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     LIGHTNING        1 NE MONTPELIER         44.28N  72.55W
05/29/2012                   WASHINGTON         VT   PUBLIC

            FIRE DEPT RESPONDING TO LIGHTNING STRIKE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200086

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             3 NNE SHOREHAM          43.93N  73.30W
05/29/2012  E0.75 INCH       ADDISON            VT   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200088

NEILES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             WEST GLOVER             44.73N  72.22W
05/29/2012  E0.50 INCH       ORLEANS            VT   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200089

NF