Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Burlington, VT

966 
WWUS51 KBTV 291806
SVSBTV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
206 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYC031-VTC001-021-291900-
/O.CON.KBTV.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120529T1900Z/
ESSEX NY-ADDISON VT-RUTLAND VT-
206 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND SOUTHERN
ADDISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VERMONT...AND NORTH CENTRAL RUTLAND COUNTY
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

AT 203 PM EDT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR
SHOREHAM CENTER...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

AT 200 PM...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED GOLF BALL HAIL IN 
TICONDEROGA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
  SUDBURY...WEST CORNWALL...WHITING...CORNWALL...SALISBURY STATION...
  LEICESTER...BRANDON...SALISBURY...EAST MIDDLEBURY...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7
9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. WINDS
MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS. LARGE HAIL
MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4380 7338 4379 7356 4393 7365 4415 7294
      4408 7292 4406 7285 4392 7282 4386 7287
      4390 7288 4387 7296 4384 7297 4383 7296
      4386 7288 4384 7287 4383 7280 4380 7279
      4377 7336
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 248DEG 7KT 4390 7326

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1247 PM EDT TUESDAY...WELL...BIG DAY. TORNADO WATCH #313 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THRU 01Z. THINKING IS
TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTN MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EWD ACROSS VT AS COMPARED TO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PER CXX VAD AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLY AM CONVECTION SUGGEST BETTER LOW-LEVEL SRH/SHEAR PROFILES
FOR POSSIBLE SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES ACROSS VERMONT. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THAT THREAT. STORMS ARE FORMING AT 1630Z ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO OUR NY COUNTIES DURING
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...AND THEN TRACK EWD INTO VT DURING THE MID-AFTN
HOURS. ANTICIPATE A FEW SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO BANDS OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. THE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY HIGH...UPR 60S TO LOWER
70S...AND INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
MID-UPR 80S IN SPOTS WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING
TO VERY UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY RARE FOR OUR AREA. SFC-6KM SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS...AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 40
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT STILL EXPECTED TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BECAUSE THE STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2" IN SPOTS...WE
ARE CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT (SEE
HYDRO SECTION BELOW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AND MOVING EAST ACROSS VERMONT AND THEN OUT OF THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 60 ACROSS VERMONT AND IN
THE 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

WEDNESDAY TRENDS DRIER WITH WESTERLY 850MB FLOW. WEAK SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER...MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND IT WILL BE LESS HUMID.

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES THAN WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1130 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATED THE EXTENDED FORECAST EARLY
TODAY MAINLY RELYING ON HPC GUIDANCE TO FREE UP MORE FORECASTERS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE EAST SATURDAY WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN
CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

***VARIABLE CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG TO
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/HAIL***

THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR MVFR COND WITH TRW THRU THIS
TIME. CEILINGS 030-050 WITH VSBY 3-5SM AT TIMES. AFT 06Z WED...FG
WILL DEVELOP WITH 2-5SM AT TIMES...THEN VFR BY 12Z-14Z WITH SCT
MID CLD. WINDS SSW 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS BFR 00Z WED.
LGT/VAR AFT 06Z WED...BECM SSW 5-10KTS BY 13Z-14Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED.
COULD SEE WIDELY SCT/SCT SHOWERS WED/THU AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
TROUGH PASSG...BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY. PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR/FG AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE 06-12Z AT KMPV/KSLK.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHCS FOR WIDESPREAD RAFL WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE...ESP AT KMPV/KSLK/KMSS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2"
ACROSS PORTIONS OF E-CENTRAL INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN VT...AND ALSO
ACROSS NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NY PER RADAR ESTIMATES. THIS
ONLY WASN/T ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLOODING. HOWEVER...THE EARLY
MORNING HEAVY RAIN HAS PRIMED SOME RIVER BASINS FOR POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING AS SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL END
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JN
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-301645-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
1233 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 313 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1154 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 AM     LIGHTNING        CABOT                   44.41N  72.31W
05/29/2012                   WASHINGTON         VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 HOUSE FIRES DUE TO LIGHTNING IN CABOT... MARSHFIELD
            AND BARRE VT

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200064

JN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1228 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-292000-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
1228 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 1 PM
AND SPREAD INTO VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE.
FURTHERMORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF...SHORT LIVED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH
MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS OR IN THE STEEP TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACK OR GREEN MOUNTAINS.

IN ADDITION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     HAIL             2 W SWANTON             44.92N  73.16W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           VT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200065

NEILES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     HAIL             SWANTON                 44.92N  73.12W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           VT   PUBLIC

            QUARTER AND SMALLER...COVERING THE GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200066

SLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 PM     HAIL             ALBURGH CENTER          44.95N  73.27W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       GRAND ISLE         VT   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200067

NEILES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KEENE VALLEY            44.19N  73.79W
05/29/2012                   ESSEX              NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE. REPORTED BY ESSEX COUNTY
            DISPATCH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200068

JN