Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEEPING AN EYE ONCE AGAIN ON A CLUSTER OF STORMS... BUT THIS
MORNING THEY ARE CLOSER TO HOME. CLUSTER IS MOVING SE ACROSS W/C
TN. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE AL MOVING IN THE
SAME TRACK AS WELL. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE 2ND DISTURBANCE THAT WE WERE WATCHING YESTERDAY TO OUR W.
THIS SHORTWAVE HAS CIRCLED AROUND TO THE E AND NOW SE AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF. OVERALL THINKING WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL MOVE SE DURING THE
MORNING...IT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE E PORTIONS OF C AL TODAY...
WITH AN ISOLATED RISK FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...BUT OVERALL
THIS IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
UNSTABLE... THERE IS MINIMAL FOCUS AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH. THE
MAIN DESTRUCTIVE FORCE TODAY WILL BE HEATING TO POSSIBLY BREAK THE
CAP AND IGNITE A FEW STORMS. MAIN THREATS IN ANY POP UPS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...AGAIN THINKING HAS CHANGED ONLY A LITTLE.
OUR PATTERN IS CHANGING...WITH TODAY'S SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING TO
THE SE AND AWAY. ANOTHER SMALL RIPPLE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING
THE DAY ACROSS N AL...BUT WEAKER THAN TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PUSHED SE
ACROSS THE C U.S. INTO W TN/AR...A TAD SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY'S
RUN. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD BE FURTHER N CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME POSSIBLE STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH LINE COULD AFFECT THE NW COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUES
PRE DAWN HOURS DEPENDING ON TIMING. THE BULK OF THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AGAIN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
LOW END WITH THE MAIN ENERGY WELL TO OUR NE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PRECIP ENDING LATE IN THE DAY WED INTO WED
EVENING SE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD USHER IN SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

AS FOR RE-ENTRY OF RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ALTHOUGH
NOT ENTIRELY IN AGREEMENT...BUT ARE BOTH AGREEING WITH A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND
THUS ONLY LOW POPS S AT THIS TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...POPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND ARE NOT ONLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE LOW BUT
HOW FAR S THE EVENTUAL TRACK IS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT SIGNIFICANT
OR INSEQUENTIAL RAIN OCCURS.

08/MNK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING
SOUTHWARD FROM MIDDLE TN...AND A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THESE STORMS WILL BRING A
FEW HOURS OF STORMY WEATHER TO ANB AND ASN THIS MORNING...WITH THE
CONVECTION LIKELY BUILDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO BHM AND EET
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. MY GUT FEELING
RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE SOUTHBOUND OUTFLOW WILL KEEP MOVING THAT
WAY...AND BE THE "LAST HURRAH" FOR CONVECTION FOR THESE AREAS. SO
THE KEY THEN BECOMES TRYING TO TIME THE OUTFLOWS PROGRESS. I'VE NOT
INCLUDED A THUNDERSTORM CONDITION AT TCL YET...AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF THERE. IF THAT
CHANGES...WE CAN UPDATE. I'VE ALSO NOT INCLUDED ANT THUNDER AT MGM
OR TOI...SIMPLY BECAUSE MY CONFIDENCE (IN THE OUTFLOW CONTINUING TO
SET OFF STORMS FARTHER SOUTH) WAS NOT AS HIGH AS THE NORTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS.

/61/

NOTE***THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS ISSUING SEASONAL TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
9TH OF MAY. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN
TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-071200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
655 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 85 THIS MORNING...BUT COULD SPREAD INTO OTHER AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED TODAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...DUE TO
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

61

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
833 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 AM     HAIL             4 ESE COLUMBIANA        33.15N 86.54W
05/06/2012  E0.88 INCH       SHELBY             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT JCT OF HWY 145 AND CR 28.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
833 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 AM     HAIL             4 ESE COLUMBIANA        33.15N 86.54W
05/06/2012  E0.88 INCH       SHELBY             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT JCT OF HWY 145 AND CR 28.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
833 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ024>027-036-061415-
COOSA AL-JEFFERSON AL-SHELBY AL-ST. CLAIR AL-TALLADEGA AL-
833 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TALLADEGA...EASTERN
SHELBY...SOUTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR...EASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHWESTERN
COOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

AT 827 AM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONE
NEAR COLUMBIANA AND THE OTHER NEAR LEEDS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TALLADEGA SPRINGS...
  FAYETTEVILLE...
  BLUE SPRINGS...
  STRICKLAND CROSSROADS...
  SHELBY SHORES AT LAY LAKE...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3306 8631 3306 8662 3307 8662 3308 8665
      3356 8667 3359 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1332Z 337DEG 3KT 3313 8650

MA