Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEEPING AN EYE ONCE AGAIN ON A CLUSTER OF STORMS... BUT THIS
MORNING THEY ARE CLOSER TO HOME. CLUSTER IS MOVING SE ACROSS W/C
TN. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE AL MOVING IN THE
SAME TRACK AS WELL. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE 2ND DISTURBANCE THAT WE WERE WATCHING YESTERDAY TO OUR W.
THIS SHORTWAVE HAS CIRCLED AROUND TO THE E AND NOW SE AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF. OVERALL THINKING WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL MOVE SE DURING THE
MORNING...IT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE E PORTIONS OF C AL TODAY...
WITH AN ISOLATED RISK FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...BUT OVERALL
THIS IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
UNSTABLE... THERE IS MINIMAL FOCUS AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH. THE
MAIN DESTRUCTIVE FORCE TODAY WILL BE HEATING TO POSSIBLY BREAK THE
CAP AND IGNITE A FEW STORMS. MAIN THREATS IN ANY POP UPS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...AGAIN THINKING HAS CHANGED ONLY A LITTLE.
OUR PATTERN IS CHANGING...WITH TODAY'S SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING TO
THE SE AND AWAY. ANOTHER SMALL RIPPLE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING
THE DAY ACROSS N AL...BUT WEAKER THAN TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PUSHED SE
ACROSS THE C U.S. INTO W TN/AR...A TAD SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY'S
RUN. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD BE FURTHER N CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME POSSIBLE STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH LINE COULD AFFECT THE NW COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUES
PRE DAWN HOURS DEPENDING ON TIMING. THE BULK OF THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AGAIN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
LOW END WITH THE MAIN ENERGY WELL TO OUR NE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PRECIP ENDING LATE IN THE DAY WED INTO WED
EVENING SE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD USHER IN SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

AS FOR RE-ENTRY OF RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ALTHOUGH
NOT ENTIRELY IN AGREEMENT...BUT ARE BOTH AGREEING WITH A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND
THUS ONLY LOW POPS S AT THIS TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...POPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND ARE NOT ONLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE LOW BUT
HOW FAR S THE EVENTUAL TRACK IS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT SIGNIFICANT
OR INSEQUENTIAL RAIN OCCURS.

08/MNK

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING
SOUTHWARD FROM MIDDLE TN...AND A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THESE STORMS WILL BRING A
FEW HOURS OF STORMY WEATHER TO ANB AND ASN THIS MORNING...WITH THE
CONVECTION LIKELY BUILDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO BHM AND EET
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. MY GUT FEELING
RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE SOUTHBOUND OUTFLOW WILL KEEP MOVING THAT
WAY...AND BE THE "LAST HURRAH" FOR CONVECTION FOR THESE AREAS. SO
THE KEY THEN BECOMES TRYING TO TIME THE OUTFLOWS PROGRESS. I'VE NOT
INCLUDED A THUNDERSTORM CONDITION AT TCL YET...AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF THERE. IF THAT
CHANGES...WE CAN UPDATE. I'VE ALSO NOT INCLUDED ANT THUNDER AT MGM
OR TOI...SIMPLY BECAUSE MY CONFIDENCE (IN THE OUTFLOW CONTINUING TO
SET OFF STORMS FARTHER SOUTH) WAS NOT AS HIGH AS THE NORTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS.

/61/

NOTE***THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS ISSUING SEASONAL TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
9TH OF MAY. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN
TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-071200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
655 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 85 THIS MORNING...BUT COULD SPREAD INTO OTHER AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED TODAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...DUE TO
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

61

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
417 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ018-019-021-061015-
CALHOUN AL-CLEBURNE AL-ETOWAH AL-
417 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ETOWAH...CENTRAL CLEBURNE
AND CALHOUN COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 412 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SARDIS CITY TO ATTALLA TO
FORT MCCLELLAN.  THESE STORMS WERE MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  SAKS...
  ANNISTON...
  WEST END-COBB TOWN...
  COBB TOWN...
  OXFORD...

&&

LAT...LON 3418 8605 3354 8551 3351 8578 3354 8580
      3358 8579 3359 8585 3382 8606 3386 8606
      3386 8609 3390 8611 3390 8613 3396 8617
      3407 8628 3415 8623 3419 8611
TIME...MOT...LOC 0915Z 004DEG 1KT 3416 8615 3404 8613
          3370 8579

08/MNK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
533 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ018-019-061130-
CALHOUN AL-ETOWAH AL-
533 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ETOWAH AND WESTERN
CALHOUN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 531 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NOCCALULA FALLS TO 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA...AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  RAINBOW CITY...
  SAKS...
  ALEXANDRIA...
  WEAVER...
  SULPHUR SPRINGS...

&&

LAT...LON 3375 8572 3367 8592 3410 8625 3419 8602
TIME...MOT...LOC 1032Z 340DEG 12KT 3402 8602 3385 8593

08/MNK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
614 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ026-061200-
ST. CLAIR AL-
614 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY
UNTIL 700 AM CDT...

AT 612 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR STEELE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAINBOW CITY...
MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ASHVILLE...
  RAGLAND...
  WATTSVILLE...

&&

LAT...LON 3390 8614 3391 8611 3387 8610 3386 8607
      3377 8606 3371 8612 3371 8614 3367 8616
      3370 8618 3369 8621 3366 8617 3363 8620
      3363 8628 3394 8632 3397 8628 3398 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1114Z 353DEG 18KT 3386 8617

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ019-027-061215-
CALHOUN AL-TALLADEGA AL-
620 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TALLADEGA AND
SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

AT 617 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ASHVILLE TO RAGLAND...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  TALLADEGA...
  LINCOLN...
  TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...
  TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY...
  WALDO...

&&

LAT...LON 3347 8592 3333 8601 3329 8609 3330 8612
      3328 8612 3326 8617 3348 8626 3354 8619
      3359 8622 3359 8619 3361 8620 3362 8617
      3365 8617 3376 8606
TIME...MOT...LOC 1120Z 006DEG 15KT 3385 8619 3367 8617

08/MNK

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