Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Birmingham, AL

373 
WWUS54 KBMX 062021
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
321 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALC011-101-062045-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-120506T2045Z/
BULLOCK AL-MONTGOMERY AL-
321 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN BULLOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 318 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SHOPTON...OR 13 MILES WEST OF UNION SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SHOPTON AND HIGH RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3215 8612 3224 8593 3223 8589 3223 8582
      3214 8577 3205 8591 3206 8595 3204 8597
      3205 8599 3201 8600
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 049DEG 4KT 3214 8593

$$

858 
WWUS54 KBMX 062035
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
335 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALC011-101-062045-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-120506T2045Z/
BULLOCK AL-MONTGOMERY AL-
335 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY AND NORTHWESTERN BULLOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 335 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SHOPTON...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF MEADVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SHOPTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3221 8592 3218 8586 3211 8582 3207 8590
      3206 8595 3206 8597 3208 8600 3217 8608
      3223 8595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 049DEG 4KT 3216 8599

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TENNESSEE MCS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS STABILIZED AS THE STORMS
DEVELOPED AND MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AND EAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM NEAR CLAYTON TO AUTAUGAVILLE TO CENTREVILLE AND
ANOTHER BATCH MOVING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW WITH IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...EXPECT ROBUST UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

CONDITIONS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DESTABILIZING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE NORTHEAST HALF DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
THEREFORE...THE HAZARDOUS THREATS SHOULD DECREASE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 3 PM. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT BE TOO LARGE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING
SOUTHWARD FROM MIDDLE TN...AND A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THESE STORMS WILL BRING A
FEW HOURS OF STORMY WEATHER TO ANB AND ASN THIS MORNING...WITH THE
CONVECTION LIKELY BUILDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO BHM AND EET
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. MY GUT FEELING
RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE SOUTHBOUND OUTFLOW WILL KEEP MOVING THAT
WAY...AND BE THE "LAST HURRAH" FOR CONVECTION FOR THESE AREAS. SO
THE KEY THEN BECOMES TRYING TO TIME THE OUTFLOWS PROGRESS. I'VE NOT
INCLUDED A THUNDERSTORM CONDITION AT TCL YET...AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF THERE. IF THAT
CHANGES...WE CAN UPDATE. I'VE ALSO NOT INCLUDED ANT THUNDER AT MGM
OR TOI...SIMPLY BECAUSE MY CONFIDENCE (IN THE OUTFLOW CONTINUING TO
SET OFF STORMS FARTHER SOUTH) WAS NOT AS HIGH AS THE NORTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS.

/61/

NOTE***THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS ISSUING SEASONAL TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
9TH OF MAY. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN
TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/440 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012/.

KEEPING AN EYE ONCE AGAIN ON A CLUSTER OF STORMS... BUT THIS
MORNING THEY ARE CLOSER TO HOME. CLUSTER IS MOVING SE ACROSS W/C
TN. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE AL MOVING IN THE
SAME TRACK AS WELL. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE 2ND DISTURBANCE THAT WE WERE WATCHING YESTERDAY TO OUR W.
THIS SHORTWAVE HAS CIRCLED AROUND TO THE E AND NOW SE AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF. OVERALL THINKING WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL MOVE SE DURING THE
MORNING...IT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE E PORTIONS OF C AL TODAY...
WITH AN ISOLATED RISK FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...BUT OVERALL
THIS IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
UNSTABLE... THERE IS MINIMAL FOCUS AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH. THE
MAIN DESTRUCTIVE FORCE TODAY WILL BE HEATING TO POSSIBLY BREAK THE
CAP AND IGNITE A FEW STORMS. MAIN THREATS IN ANY POP UPS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...AGAIN THINKING HAS CHANGED ONLY A LITTLE.
OUR PATTERN IS CHANGING...WITH TODAY'S SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING TO
THE SE AND AWAY. ANOTHER SMALL RIPPLE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING
THE DAY ACROSS N AL...BUT WEAKER THAN TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PUSHED SE
ACROSS THE C U.S. INTO W TN/AR...A TAD SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY'S
RUN. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD BE FURTHER N CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME POSSIBLE STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH LINE COULD AFFECT THE NW COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUES
PRE DAWN HOURS DEPENDING ON TIMING. THE BULK OF THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AGAIN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
LOW END WITH THE MAIN ENERGY WELL TO OUR NE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PRECIP ENDING LATE IN THE DAY WED INTO WED
EVENING SE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD USHER IN SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

AS FOR RE-ENTRY OF RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ALTHOUGH
NOT ENTIRELY IN AGREEMENT...BUT ARE BOTH AGREEING WITH A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND
THUS ONLY LOW POPS S AT THIS TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...POPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND ARE NOT ONLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE LOW BUT
HOW FAR S THE EVENTUAL TRACK IS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT SIGNIFICANT
OR INCONSEQUENTIAL RAIN OCCURS.

08/MNK

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
145 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-071845-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
145 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE
IS NOT A THREAT FOR TORNADO ACTIVITY. THE MAIN AREA FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF A DEMOPOLIS TO ALICEVILLE
LINE AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM EUFAULA TO UNION SPRINGS TO TROY. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...DUE TO
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

75

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 PM     HAIL             HAMILTON CROSSROADS     31.64N 85.81W
05/06/2012  M3.00 INCH       PIKE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            US 231

&&

MBAER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
133 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ039-061915-
MARENGO AL-
133 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MARENGO COUNTY UNTIL 215
PM CDT...

AT 129 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR VINELAND...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINDEN...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  VINELAND...
  SHILOH...
  MILLER...
  SURGINER...
  SHAWNEE...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3199 8794 3199 8797 3230 8782 3213 8758
      3212 8762 3201 8762 3200 8763 3200 8765
      3198 8767 3198 8794
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 058DEG 3KT 3203 8765

MA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
200 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 PM     HAIL             GOSHEN                  31.72N 86.13W
05/06/2012  E1.00 INCH       PIKE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LINHARES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
211 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ039-062000-
MARENGO AL-
211 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MARENGO COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

AT 206 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SWEET WATER...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LINDEN...
MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NANAFALIA...
  PUTNAM...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 8809 3207 8807 3208 8805 3210 8806
      3214 8805 3215 8802 3218 8801 3224 8802
      3222 8783 3198 8782 3199 8811 3200 8812
      3206 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 091DEG 13KT 3213 8794

MA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
217 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     HAIL             CARLOWVILLE             32.09N 87.03W
05/06/2012  E1.00 INCH       DALLAS             AL   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL BRIEFLY COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

LINHARES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
231 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE COMER             32.01N 85.30W
05/06/2012                   BARBOUR            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG COUNTY ROAD 79 NEAR
            COMER.

&&

LINHARES