Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Birmingham, AL

082 
WWUS54 KBMX 061818
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
118 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALC113-061828-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-120506T1845Z/
RUSSELL AL-
118 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL RUSSELL
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3202 8517 3184 8517 3185 8541 3208 8543
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 009DEG 8KT 3199 8534

$$

ALC005-061845-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-120506T1845Z/
BARBOUR AL-
118 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
BARBOUR COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 115 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
COMER...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIDWAY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WHITE OAK...OSCO AND LUGO.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3202 8517 3184 8517 3185 8541 3208 8543
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 009DEG 8KT 3199 8534

$$

MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TENNESSEE MCS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS STABILIZED AS THE STORMS
DEVELOPED AND MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AND EAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM NEAR CLAYTON TO AUTAUGAVILLE TO CENTREVILLE AND
ANOTHER BATCH MOVING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW WITH IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...EXPECT ROBUST UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

CONDITIONS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DESTABILIZING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE NORTHEAST HALF DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
THEREFORE...THE HAZARDOUS THREATS SHOULD DECREASE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 3 PM. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
NOT BE TOO LARGE.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING
SOUTHWARD FROM MIDDLE TN...AND A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THESE STORMS WILL BRING A
FEW HOURS OF STORMY WEATHER TO ANB AND ASN THIS MORNING...WITH THE
CONVECTION LIKELY BUILDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO BHM AND EET
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF VALID TIME. MY GUT FEELING
RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE SOUTHBOUND OUTFLOW WILL KEEP MOVING THAT
WAY...AND BE THE "LAST HURRAH" FOR CONVECTION FOR THESE AREAS. SO
THE KEY THEN BECOMES TRYING TO TIME THE OUTFLOWS PROGRESS. I'VE NOT
INCLUDED A THUNDERSTORM CONDITION AT TCL YET...AS IT APPEARS THAT
THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST OF THERE. IF THAT
CHANGES...WE CAN UPDATE. I'VE ALSO NOT INCLUDED ANT THUNDER AT MGM
OR TOI...SIMPLY BECAUSE MY CONFIDENCE (IN THE OUTFLOW CONTINUING TO
SET OFF STORMS FARTHER SOUTH) WAS NOT AS HIGH AS THE NORTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS.

/61/

NOTE***THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS ISSUING SEASONAL TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
9TH OF MAY. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN
TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/440 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012/.

KEEPING AN EYE ONCE AGAIN ON A CLUSTER OF STORMS... BUT THIS
MORNING THEY ARE CLOSER TO HOME. CLUSTER IS MOVING SE ACROSS W/C
TN. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE AL MOVING IN THE
SAME TRACK AS WELL. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE 2ND DISTURBANCE THAT WE WERE WATCHING YESTERDAY TO OUR W.
THIS SHORTWAVE HAS CIRCLED AROUND TO THE E AND NOW SE AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF. OVERALL THINKING WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL MOVE SE DURING THE
MORNING...IT WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE E PORTIONS OF C AL TODAY...
WITH AN ISOLATED RISK FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...BUT OVERALL
THIS IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
UNSTABLE... THERE IS MINIMAL FOCUS AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH. THE
MAIN DESTRUCTIVE FORCE TODAY WILL BE HEATING TO POSSIBLY BREAK THE
CAP AND IGNITE A FEW STORMS. MAIN THREATS IN ANY POP UPS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...AGAIN THINKING HAS CHANGED ONLY A LITTLE.
OUR PATTERN IS CHANGING...WITH TODAY'S SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING TO
THE SE AND AWAY. ANOTHER SMALL RIPPLE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING
THE DAY ACROSS N AL...BUT WEAKER THAN TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PUSHED SE
ACROSS THE C U.S. INTO W TN/AR...A TAD SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY'S
RUN. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD BE FURTHER N CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME POSSIBLE STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH LINE COULD AFFECT THE NW COUNTIES AS EARLY AS TUES
PRE DAWN HOURS DEPENDING ON TIMING. THE BULK OF THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AGAIN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
LOW END WITH THE MAIN ENERGY WELL TO OUR NE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PRECIP ENDING LATE IN THE DAY WED INTO WED
EVENING SE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WHICH SHOULD USHER IN SOME DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

AS FOR RE-ENTRY OF RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ALTHOUGH
NOT ENTIRELY IN AGREEMENT...BUT ARE BOTH AGREEING WITH A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND
THUS ONLY LOW POPS S AT THIS TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...POPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND ARE NOT ONLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE LOW BUT
HOW FAR S THE EVENTUAL TRACK IS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT SIGNIFICANT
OR INCONSEQUENTIAL RAIN OCCURS.

08/MNK

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-071345-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1100 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE
IS NOT A THREAT FOR TORNADO ACTIVITY. THE MAIN AREA FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED TODAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...DUE TO
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1138 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ040-042-061730-
DALLAS AL-LOWNDES AL-
1138 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOWNDES AND SOUTHERN
DALLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1134 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF SNOW HILL...OR 15 MILES WEST OF
MOSSES...MOVING NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME WESTERN LOWNDES AND SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS
COUNTIES.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 8686 3204 8687 3204 8711 3217 8710
      3216 8680 3196 8680 3196 8685
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 172DEG 2KT 3211 8691

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1209 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ048-061745-
RUSSELL AL-
1209 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY UNTIL 1245
PM CDT...

AT 1206 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF FORT BENNING SOUTH...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 8493 3222 8497 3220 8496 3218 8501
      3214 8506 3231 8512 3235 8500 3233 8500
      3231 8494 3226 8489 3225 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 338DEG 8KT 3226 8498

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ049-050-061745-
BARBOUR AL-PIKE AL-
1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PIKE AND SOUTHWESTERN
BARBOUR COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1211 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TROY UNIVERSITY TO
BRUNDIDGE TO DOSTER...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  GOSHEN...
  HAMILTON CROSSROADS...
  TARENTUM...
  TENNILLE...
  HENDERSON...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8618 3167 8615 3175 8615 3185 8601
      3173 8543 3161 8550 3161 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 050DEG 9KT 3174 8600 3166 8584
          3165 8562

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1241 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ039-061830-
MARENGO AL-
1241 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM CDT...

AT 1238 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR CONSUL...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINDEN...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MAGNOLIA...
  VINELAND...
  SURGINER...
  SHILOH...
  SHAWNEE...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3199 8785 3235 8770 3227 8749 3225 8752
      3214 8752 3213 8753 3212 8762 3201 8762
      3200 8763 3200 8765 3198 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 023DEG 7KT 3219 8755

MA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ALZ048-050-061830-
BARBOUR AL-RUSSELL AL-
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RUSSELL AND EASTERN
BARBOUR COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1243 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HAWKINSVILLE TO 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE PARK...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  EUFAULA...
  HAWKINSVILLE...
  LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE PARK...
  WHITE OAK...
  OSCO...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 8541 3215 8539 3214 8505 3210 8504
      3201 8505 3197 8506 3195 8508 3194 8508
      3189 8513 3177 8513 3177 8515 3174 8519
      3169 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 346DEG 11KT 3206 8525 3205 8503

MA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 PM     HAIL             HAMILTON CROSSROADS     31.64N 85.81W
05/06/2012  M3.00 INCH       PIKE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            US 231

&&

MBAER