Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
244 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL USHER
IN INCREASED MOISTURE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RESULTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDER
COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS...BUT OVERALL...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY IN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...
PULSE STORMS IGNITING AS EXPECTED ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-81...ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS...THOUGH PERHAPS OF A BIT MORE
COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/WEAK WAVE IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON
SCHEDULE. GOOD DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES/NORTHEAST PA. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY WITHIN THE SMALL AREA
OF OVERLAP FOR BOTH DECENT INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR...YET
MOVING INTO AREA OF LESS SHEAR. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY FOR EXPECTED TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY BOTH FROM
DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...AND THE WAVE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. I
ALSO ADDED GUSTY WINDS WORDING TO ACCOMPANY THUNDER IN THE WEATHER
GRIDS...ALONG WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL.

INTERESTING SET UP...WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY/LOW SHEAR IN THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES...AND HIGHER SHEAR/NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY
IN THE WEST WHERE CLOUD COVER IMPACTED SURFACE HEATING.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS ENTIRE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS SOME
THREAT...BECAUSE OF AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING NOW OCCURRING AHEAD OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY /EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/. WE HAVE ALREADY
HAD A FEW PULSE STORMS WITH ELEVATED CORES...THOUGH ALMOST ALL OF
THEM NOT QUITE TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS. DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AS INDICATED BY 1500-2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER 0-1KM CAPE. THE SHEAR
THOUGH IS MARGINAL AT BEST...AND MAINLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

ACTIVITY QUICKLY WANES IN WAKE OF WAVE LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AGAIN HAS ENTIRE AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE FRIDAY. SHEAR PARAMETERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...BUT WE WILL BE
IN WARM SECTOR ALOFT WHILE ALSO HAVING LIMITED HEATING DUE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
HOW MUCH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WE CAN GET. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING SMALL EMBEDDED WAVE TO CONTINUE ITS TREK
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING ON ITS WAY OUT IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
LATE MORNING. BEYOND THEN...THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL...BEFORE
OCCLUDED FRONT BECOMES INVOLVED APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR POSSIBLE WATER CONCERNS.

CUTOFF LOW STACKS WITH SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT OVER LAKE
HURON...WHICH THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. THIS
ALLOWS DRY SLOT TO OVERTAKE THE REGION FOR MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SHOWERS/THUNDER LINGERING IN THE EASTERN ZONES
SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING OCCLUDED FRONT...ONLY
LOOKING AT SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN FINGER LAKES
THROUGH MOHAWK VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND...AFTER A WARM SATURDAY MORNING...WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE BROAD TROF. FOR TUESDAY,
INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA. FOR NOW
KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS ON THURSDAY, AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
GFS SHOWING DRY WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND TROF
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW DROPPING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER LAKES WITH PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE
TERMINALS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FOR THIS
ACTIVITY INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR THEN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING AREA WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF A WARM
FRONT WITH MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY
MID/LATE MORNING WITH MORE CONVECTION LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS OCCLUSION APPROACHES TERMINALS.

S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN
S/SW ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AFTERNOON...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY ENOUGH...AND FLOW IS
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...TO MITIGATE FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. WE WILL HOWEVER HAVE TO MONITOR
TO SEE IF ANY LOCALIZED AREAS GET REPEATED BATCHES/BACK-
BUILDING...FOR POSSIBLE MINOR ISSUES/PONDING/ETC. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FRIDAY...POOLING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES ALONG
NEGATIVELY-TILTING OCCLUDED FRONT THAT ENCROACHES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHAT KIND OF PRIMING WE
GET FROM OUR FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WATER PROBLEMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY
THEN...PARTICULARLY CATSKILLS/POCONOS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AND ASSESSED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...MDP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
539 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

PAZ039-092215-
SUSQUEHANNA PA-
539 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY...

* AT 537 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  MONTROSE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WYOANNA AND MONTROSE AT 545 PM EDT...
  BRACKNEY AT 550 PM EDT...
  HALLSTEAD AND GREAT BEND AT 615 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4200 7552 4188 7548 4178 7594 4198 7601

RRM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
717 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NYZ057-062-PAZ039-040-044-072-100015-
DELAWARE NY-LACKAWANNA PA-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-WAYNE PA-
717 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
LACKAWANNA...NORTHERN WAYNE...SOUTHEASTERN SUSQUEHANNA...SOUTHWESTERN
DELAWARE AND WEST CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

* AT 714 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
  STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HANCOCK TO PLEASANT MOUNT TO
  ROYAL...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CLIFFORD AT 725 PM EDT...
  PLEASANT MOUNT AND UNIONDALE AT 730 PM EDT...
  EQUINUNK AT 740 PM EDT...
  RICHMONDALE AT 745 PM EDT...
  BROWNDALE AND VANDLING AT 750 PM EDT...
  STALKER AND LOOKOUT AT 800 PM EDT...
  WAYMART AND RILEYVILLE AT 805 PM EDT...
  HANKINS AND RUTLEDGEDALE AT 810 PM EDT...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4185 7484 4168 7495 4155 7526 4167 7584
      4181 7553 4200 7536

HEDEN