Alert archive / New York / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

August 9, 2012Schuyler County, New York

NWS Binghamton, NY issued this special weather statement at Aug 9, 2012, 2:29 PM EDT for Schuyler County, New York. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 9, 2012, 2:29 PM EDT (18:29 UTC)
Expired
Aug 9, 2012, 3:00 PM EDT
In force
31 min
Issued by
NWS Binghamton, NY

County Schuyler County, NY

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 169 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2012-08-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2012-08-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 16 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1185 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
30 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 9, 1:46 PM EDT, 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 9, 1:46 PM EDT, 43 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR AREA TODAY...AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY. SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE LOW LINGERING TO OUR
WEST...THE RISK OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
INTERESTING SET UP FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY/LOW SHEAR
IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES...AND HIGHER SHEAR/NOT AS MUCH
INSTABILITY IN THE WEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASINGLY IMPACT
SURFACE HEATING. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED ENTIRE AREA
INTO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS SOME THREAT...BECAUSE OF AMOUNT OF SURFACE
HEATING NOW OCCURRING AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND MUCH HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY /EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE AFTERNOON/.

EXPECTING PULSE VARIETY STORMS TO IGNITE WITH DIURNAL HEATING I-81
EASTWARD BEGINNING EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS INDICATED BY 1500-2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER 0-1KM CAPE.
MEANWHILE...A WAVE NOW MARKED BY CONVECTION IN NW CORNER
PA/EXTREME W NY...IS SET TO ARRIVE AROUND 18-19Z IN THE WESTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH INCREASING /THOUGH MARGINAL/ SHEAR. EXPECTING STORM
CLUSTERS OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITH THIS FEATURE...TO THEN
CARRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE SMALL AREA OF OVERLAP FOR
BOTH DECENT INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR. FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED ACCORDINGLY FOR EXPECTED TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY. I ALSO ADDED GUSTY WINDS WORDING TO ACCOMPANY THUNDER IN
THE WEATHER GRIDS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...ALONG WITH DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...TO MITIGATE EXCESSIVE WATER ISSUES. HOWEVER...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANY LOCALIZED AREAS GET REPEATED BATCHES FOR
MINOR PROBLEMS/PONDING/ETC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF CONV COMES THRU ON FRI AS A STRONGER WV ROTATES
ARND THE CLSD LOW OVER IN. THIS TOO WILL HAVE DEEP MOPISTURE AND
IS CONECTED TO THE GULF...BUT A SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN THE WIND
PROFILE SHOWS STRONG LL DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH A BIT
MORE OF A MID LVL JET AVBL. THIS WILL INCRS THE THREAT OF SVR WX
ON FRIDAY ESP WITH ANY HTG. WITHOUT HTG...LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
THE LWR CAPE VALUES. IN ANY EVENT...THE BAND OF CONV WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE OUT FRI NGT AND SAT MRNG...BUT WILL BE FLWD BY A DRY PUNCH
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SAT LOOKS TO BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH ISLTD TO CHANCE POPS AT
BEST. HWVR...WITH LWRG HGTS...ESP OVER THE WRN ZONES...CONV CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

MODEL TEMP GUID CONTD TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT
CONTG THE HIER CONFIDENCE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE BROAD TROF. FOR TUESDAY,
INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA. FOR NOW
KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS ON THURSDAY, AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
GFS SHOWING DRY WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND TROF
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW DROPPING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER LAKES WITH PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE
TERMINALS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FOR THIS
ACTIVITY INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR THEN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING AREA WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF A WARM
FRONT WITH MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY
MID/LATE MORNING WITH MORE CONVECTION LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS OCCLUSION APPROACHES TERMINALS.

S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN
S/SW ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AFTERNOON...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 9, 9:34 AM EDT, 4 hours 55 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
934 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-101345-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
934 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGEST CELLS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO...SLOW MOVING STORMS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER IN URBANIZED AREAS AND OTHER TYPICAL LOW LYING
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

MDP

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 9, 1:03 PM EDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
103 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

PAZ039-040-091800-
SUSQUEHANNA PA-WAYNE PA-
103 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME WEST CENTRAL WAYNE AND
SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES...

* AT 101 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOP BOTTOM...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ALFORD AT 115 PM EDT...
  HARFORD AT 130 PM EDT...
  NEW MILFORD AT 135 PM EDT...
  GIBSON AT 140 PM EDT...
  LAKESIDE AT 145 PM EDT...
  JACKSON AT 150 PM EDT...
  LAKEVIEW AND HICKORY GROVE AT 155 PM EDT...
  THOMPSON AND ARARAT AT 200 PM EDT...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4200 7565 4178 7544 4165 7596 4175 7604

JAB
Special weather statement, Aug 9, 2:29 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
229 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NYZ015-016-023>025-091900-
CHEMUNG NY-SCHUYLER NY-SENECA NY-TOMPKINS NY-YATES NY-
229 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CHEMUNG...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SENECA...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN YATES...SCHUYLER
AND WESTERN TOMPKINS COUNTIES...

* AT 226 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG
  GUSTY WINDS.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WATKINS GLEN...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BENNETTSBURG AND BURDETT AT 235 PM EDT...
  SMITH VALLEY AND REYNOLDSVILLE AT 240 PM EDT...
  MECKLENBURG AND SEARSBURG AT 245 PM EDT...
  ENFIELD AND PERRY CITY AT 250 PM EDT...
  JACKSONVILLE AND TRUMANSBURG AT 255 PM EDT...
  WILLOW CREEK AND NORTHWEST ITHACA AT 300 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4259 7662 4238 7648 4226 7694 4243 7704

SLI

The office that day

Everything else NWS Binghamton, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 9, 2:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMSullivan34 min
Aug 9, 3:21 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMChemung39 min
Aug 9, 3:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMOneida49 min
Aug 9, 4:20 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMHerkimer25 min
Aug 9, 4:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMOneida31 min
Aug 9, 4:51 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMChenango, Otsego54 min
Aug 9, 5:05 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMBroome55 min
Aug 9, 5:28 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMChenango62 min
Aug 9, 5:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMOtsego58 min
Aug 9, 6:31 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBGMOtsego2 hr
Aug 9, 6:35 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningBGMOtsego2 hr
Aug 9, 7:19 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMOtsego56 min
Aug 9, 1:03 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMSusquehanna57 min
Aug 9, 2:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMTioga45 min
Aug 9, 5:39 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMSusquehanna36 min
Aug 9, 6:29 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBGMLuzerne3 hr
Aug 9, 6:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLuzerne, Wyoming55 min
Aug 9, 7:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLackawanna, Luzerne, Wyoming53 min
Aug 9, 7:17 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBGMWayne58 min
Aug 9, 7:24 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBGMLuzerne108 min
Aug 9, 7:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLackawanna, Susquehanna, Wayne, Wyoming54 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in New York, 2012Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.