Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
244 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL USHER
IN INCREASED MOISTURE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RESULTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDER
COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS...BUT OVERALL...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY IN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...
PULSE STORMS IGNITING AS EXPECTED ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-81...ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS...THOUGH PERHAPS OF A BIT MORE
COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/WEAK WAVE IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ON
SCHEDULE. GOOD DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF IT SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES/NORTHEAST PA. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY WITHIN THE SMALL AREA
OF OVERLAP FOR BOTH DECENT INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR...YET
MOVING INTO AREA OF LESS SHEAR. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY FOR EXPECTED TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY BOTH FROM
DIURNAL PULSE CONVECTION...AND THE WAVE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. I
ALSO ADDED GUSTY WINDS WORDING TO ACCOMPANY THUNDER IN THE WEATHER
GRIDS...ALONG WITH MENTION OF POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL.

INTERESTING SET UP...WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY/LOW SHEAR IN THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES...AND HIGHER SHEAR/NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY
IN THE WEST WHERE CLOUD COVER IMPACTED SURFACE HEATING.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS ENTIRE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS SOME
THREAT...BECAUSE OF AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING NOW OCCURRING AHEAD OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY /EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON/. WE HAVE ALREADY
HAD A FEW PULSE STORMS WITH ELEVATED CORES...THOUGH ALMOST ALL OF
THEM NOT QUITE TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS. DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AS INDICATED BY 1500-2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER 0-1KM CAPE. THE SHEAR
THOUGH IS MARGINAL AT BEST...AND MAINLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

ACTIVITY QUICKLY WANES IN WAKE OF WAVE LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AGAIN HAS ENTIRE AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE FRIDAY. SHEAR PARAMETERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...BUT WE WILL BE
IN WARM SECTOR ALOFT WHILE ALSO HAVING LIMITED HEATING DUE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
HOW MUCH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WE CAN GET. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING SMALL EMBEDDED WAVE TO CONTINUE ITS TREK
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING ON ITS WAY OUT IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
LATE MORNING. BEYOND THEN...THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL...BEFORE
OCCLUDED FRONT BECOMES INVOLVED APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR POSSIBLE WATER CONCERNS.

CUTOFF LOW STACKS WITH SURFACE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT OVER LAKE
HURON...WHICH THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC. THIS
ALLOWS DRY SLOT TO OVERTAKE THE REGION FOR MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SHOWERS/THUNDER LINGERING IN THE EASTERN ZONES
SATURDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING OCCLUDED FRONT...ONLY
LOOKING AT SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN FINGER LAKES
THROUGH MOHAWK VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND...AFTER A WARM SATURDAY MORNING...WILL BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE BROAD TROF. FOR TUESDAY,
INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA. FOR NOW
KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS ON THURSDAY, AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
GFS SHOWING DRY WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND TROF
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW DROPPING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER LAKES WITH PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE
TERMINALS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FOR THIS
ACTIVITY INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR THEN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING AREA WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF A WARM
FRONT WITH MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY
MID/LATE MORNING WITH MORE CONVECTION LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS OCCLUSION APPROACHES TERMINALS.

S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN
S/SW ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AFTERNOON...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY ENOUGH...AND FLOW IS
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...TO MITIGATE FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. WE WILL HOWEVER HAVE TO MONITOR
TO SEE IF ANY LOCALIZED AREAS GET REPEATED BATCHES/BACK-
BUILDING...FOR POSSIBLE MINOR ISSUES/PONDING/ETC. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FRIDAY...POOLING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES ALONG
NEGATIVELY-TILTING OCCLUDED FRONT THAT ENCROACHES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHAT KIND OF PRIMING WE
GET FROM OUR FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WATER PROBLEMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY
THEN...PARTICULARLY CATSKILLS/POCONOS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AND ASSESSED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...MDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
934 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-101345-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
934 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGEST CELLS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO...SLOW MOVING STORMS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER IN URBANIZED AREAS AND OTHER TYPICAL LOW LYING
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

MDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NYZ062-PAZ048-092000-
PIKE PA-SULLIVAN NY-
321 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN PIKE AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

* AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG
  GUSTY WINDS.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF DINGMANS
  FERRY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DINGMANS FERRY AT 330 PM EDT...
  TWIN LAKES AT 345 PM EDT...
  MILFORD AT 350 PM EDT...
  MILLRIFT AND GLEN SPEY AT 400 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4150 7450 4149 7475 4144 7476 4143 7473
      4140 7473 4136 7468 4132 7479 4124 7486
      4119 7487 4113 7498 4127 7513 4165 7465
      4151 7448

RRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
420 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NYZ009-092045-
ONEIDA NY-
420 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA COUNTY...

* AT 417 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG
  GUSTY WINDS.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOONVILLE...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WOODGATE AT 435 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4360 7510 4355 7509 4351 7510 4345 7537
      4349 7539 4350 7538 4361 7513 4361 7511

HEDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
451 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NYZ045-046-057-092145-
CHENANGO NY-DELAWARE NY-OTSEGO NY-
451 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL DELAWARE...
NORTHEASTERN CHENANGO AND OTSEGO COUNTIES...

* AT 446 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...
  STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF EXETER
  CENTER TO EDMESTON TO NORWICH...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RICHFIELD SPRINGS AND MORRIS AT 500 PM EDT...
  OAKSVILLE AND NEW LISBON AT 505 PM EDT...
  HARTWICK AT 510 PM EDT...
  SPRINGFIELD AND TODDSVILLE AT 515 PM EDT...
  EAST SPRINGFIELD AND WESTVILLE AT 520 PM EDT...
  CHERRY VALLEY AND WEST END AT 525 PM EDT...
  WESTFORD AND PORTLANDVILLE AT 530 PM EDT...
  MARYLAND AND COOPERSTOWN JCT AT 535 PM EDT...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4229 7479 4245 7566 4273 7529 4286 7520
      4287 7515 4291 7511 4283 7492 4285 7489
      4290 7488 4283 7464 4276 7466 4262 7463
      4252 7470 4243 7461

HEDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
504 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             NORWICH                 42.53N  75.52W
08/09/2012  E0.88 INCH       CHENANGO           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO ADDITIONAL PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTS FROM THE NORWICH
            AREA.

&&

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
505 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NYZ045-056-057-092200-
BROOME NY-CHENANGO NY-DELAWARE NY-
505 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BROOME...EXTREME WEST
CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN CHENANGO COUNTIES...

* AT 503 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
  STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHENANGO FORKS TO CHENANGO
  BRIDGE TO BINGHAMTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PORT CRANE AT 510 PM EDT...
  SANITARIA SPGS AT 520 PM EDT...
  CONKLIN AT 525 PM EDT...
  KIRKWOOD AT 530 PM EDT...
  BELDEN AT 535 PM EDT...
  HARPURSVILLE AND NINEVEH AT 545 PM EDT...
  WINDSOR AND EAST WINDSOR AT 550 PM EDT...
  AFTON AT 555 PM EDT...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

LAT...LON 4200 7549 4200 7592 4201 7607 4233 7590
      4229 7541

HEDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
528 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NYZ045-046-092230-
CHENANGO NY-OTSEGO NY-
528 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CHENANGO AND WEST CENTRAL
OTSEGO COUNTIES...

* AT 525 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS TO 50 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OXFORD...
  AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PRESTON AT 535 PM EDT...
  GUILFORD AT 540 PM EDT...
  POLKVILLE AT 545 PM EDT...
  NORWICH AT 550 PM EDT...
  LATHAMS CORNERS AND MT UPTON AT 555 PM EDT...
  HOLMESVILLE AT 600 PM EDT...
  HOLMESVILLE AND GILBERTSVILLE AT 605 PM EDT...
  SOUTH NEW BERLIN AND GILBERTSVILLE AT 610 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4266 7533 4248 7517 4231 7563 4247 7576

SLI