Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Binghamton, NY

533 
WWUS51 KBGM 091848
SVSBGM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
248 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NYC105-PAC103-091858-
/O.CAN.KBGM.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-120809T1915Z/
SULLIVAN NY-PIKE PA-
248 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PIKE AND
SOUTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-888-603-1402...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 4183 7468 4158 7453 4144 7506 4154 7513
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 245DEG 14KT 4161 7489

$$

RRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR AREA TODAY...AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY. SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE LOW LINGERING TO OUR
WEST...THE RISK OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
INTERESTING SET UP FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY/LOW SHEAR
IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES...AND HIGHER SHEAR/NOT AS MUCH
INSTABILITY IN THE WEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASINGLY IMPACT
SURFACE HEATING. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED ENTIRE AREA
INTO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS SOME THREAT...BECAUSE OF AMOUNT OF SURFACE
HEATING NOW OCCURRING AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND MUCH HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY /EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES BY
LATE AFTERNOON/.

EXPECTING PULSE VARIETY STORMS TO IGNITE WITH DIURNAL HEATING I-81
EASTWARD BEGINNING EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS INDICATED BY 1500-2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER 0-1KM CAPE.
MEANWHILE...A WAVE NOW MARKED BY CONVECTION IN NW CORNER
PA/EXTREME W NY...IS SET TO ARRIVE AROUND 18-19Z IN THE WESTERN
ZONES ALONG WITH INCREASING /THOUGH MARGINAL/ SHEAR. EXPECTING STORM
CLUSTERS OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITH THIS FEATURE...TO THEN
CARRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE SMALL AREA OF OVERLAP FOR
BOTH DECENT INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR. FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED ACCORDINGLY FOR EXPECTED TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY. I ALSO ADDED GUSTY WINDS WORDING TO ACCOMPANY THUNDER IN
THE WEATHER GRIDS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...ALONG WITH DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...TO MITIGATE EXCESSIVE WATER ISSUES. HOWEVER...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TO SEE IF ANY LOCALIZED AREAS GET REPEATED BATCHES FOR
MINOR PROBLEMS/PONDING/ETC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER SHOT OF CONV COMES THRU ON FRI AS A STRONGER WV ROTATES
ARND THE CLSD LOW OVER IN. THIS TOO WILL HAVE DEEP MOPISTURE AND
IS CONECTED TO THE GULF...BUT A SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN THE WIND
PROFILE SHOWS STRONG LL DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH A BIT
MORE OF A MID LVL JET AVBL. THIS WILL INCRS THE THREAT OF SVR WX
ON FRIDAY ESP WITH ANY HTG. WITHOUT HTG...LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
THE LWR CAPE VALUES. IN ANY EVENT...THE BAND OF CONV WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE OUT FRI NGT AND SAT MRNG...BUT WILL BE FLWD BY A DRY PUNCH
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SAT LOOKS TO BE A MUCH DRIER DAY WITH ISLTD TO CHANCE POPS AT
BEST. HWVR...WITH LWRG HGTS...ESP OVER THE WRN ZONES...CONV CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

MODEL TEMP GUID CONTD TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT
CONTG THE HIER CONFIDENCE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WHICH BASICALLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE BROAD TROF. FOR TUESDAY,
INCLUDED CHC POPS FOR TSRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM EASTERN CANADA. FOR NOW
KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS ON THURSDAY, AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
GFS SHOWING DRY WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND TROF
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW DROPPING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER LAKES WITH PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE
TERMINALS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FOR THIS
ACTIVITY INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR THEN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING AREA WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF A WARM
FRONT WITH MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY
MID/LATE MORNING WITH MORE CONVECTION LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS OCCLUSION APPROACHES TERMINALS.

S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN
S/SW ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AFTERNOON...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
SUN THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
934 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-101345-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
934 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGEST CELLS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO...SLOW MOVING STORMS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING AND
PONDING OF WATER IN URBANIZED AREAS AND OTHER TYPICAL LOW LYING
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

MDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
103 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

PAZ039-040-091800-
SUSQUEHANNA PA-WAYNE PA-
103 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME WEST CENTRAL WAYNE AND
SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES...

* AT 101 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOP BOTTOM...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ALFORD AT 115 PM EDT...
  HARFORD AT 130 PM EDT...
  NEW MILFORD AT 135 PM EDT...
  GIBSON AT 140 PM EDT...
  LAKESIDE AT 145 PM EDT...
  JACKSON AT 150 PM EDT...
  LAKEVIEW AND HICKORY GROVE AT 155 PM EDT...
  THOMPSON AND ARARAT AT 200 PM EDT...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4200 7565 4178 7544 4165 7596 4175 7604

JAB