Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Binghamton, NY

791 
WWUS51 KBGM 292210
SVSBGM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
610 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYC025-PAC069-127-292220-
/O.CAN.KBGM.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-120529T2245Z/
DELAWARE NY-LACKAWANNA PA-WAYNE PA-
610 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WAYNE...EASTERN LACKAWANNA AND
SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4150 7448 4149 7475 4136 7468 4132 7479
      4118 7488 4108 7502 4115 7516 4125 7514
      4124 7529 4201 7477 4188 7445 4175 7456
      4165 7439 4159 7436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 268DEG 22KT 4233 7432 4186 7490
          4116 7530

$$

NYC105-PAC103-292245-
/O.CON.KBGM.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-120529T2245Z/
SULLIVAN NY-PIKE PA-
610 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

AT 607 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 33 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WILLOWEMOC TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON MANOR TO 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PECKS POND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TUSTEN...LIVINGSTON MANOR AND LAVA BY 615 PM EDT...
  TYLERTOWN...PARKSTON AND DEBRUCE BY 620 PM EDT...
  WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...BETHEL AND BEAVER BROOK BY 625 PM EDT...
  WILLOWEMOC BY 630 PM EDT...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 7448 4149 7475 4136 7468 4132 7479
      4118 7488 4108 7502 4115 7516 4125 7514
      4124 7529 4201 7477 4188 7445 4175 7456
      4165 7439 4159 7436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 268DEG 22KT 4233 7432 4186 7490
          4116 7530

$$

CMG

564 
WWUS51 KBGM 292244
SVSBGM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYC105-PAC103-292254-
/O.EXP.KBGM.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-120529T2245Z/
SULLIVAN NY-PIKE PA-
644 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM EDT...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4150 7448 4149 7475 4136 7468 4132 7479
      4118 7488 4108 7502 4115 7516 4125 7514
      4124 7529 4201 7477 4188 7445 4175 7456
      4165 7439 4159 7436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 268DEG 22KT 4234 7404 4187 7462
          4117 7502

$$

CMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
311 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL FINISH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
FILL IN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT A SECOND
FRONT WILL STILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...A WETTER PERIOD IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED FOR LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT OVERALL
THINGS ARE EVOLVING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK WELL UNDERWAY. ONE ADJUSTMENT THAT HAS BEEN MADE
THOUGH...IS TO FOCUS CONVECTION MORE EXCLUSIVELY ON THE VORTICITY
LOBE...AND MUCH LESS ON THE FRONT ITSELF. IN OTHER WORDS...APPEARS
TO BE ONE MAIN BATCH VERSUS TWO SEPARATE ONES.

WHAT BEGAN AS DISCRETE LARGE CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...WITH GREATER
THAN 2K J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE...IS EVOLVING WITH TIME TO MORE OF
AN ORGANIZED LINE WITH A HIGH WIND THREAT. ENTIRE CWA IS UNDER A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...AND ABOUT 13 WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE EVENT SO FAR. UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE STORMS...WITH DEWPOINTS OF UPPER 60S...YIELDED A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR THE APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD FRONT TO PLAY
WITH.

ALSO...1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY AROUND 2
INCHES PLUS...WITH SOME SUB-COUNTY AREAS AS LOW AS 1.5 INCHES.
WHILE STORMS IN GENERAL WILL MOVE ALONG AT A GOOD ENOUGH PACE TO
PREVENT FLASH FLOODING...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF
ANY SPECIFIC LOCATIONS THAT GET MORE THAN ONE STORM...COULD HAVE
LOCALIZED FLOOD ISSUES. AT THIS TIME...DOES NOT APPEAR TO ENOUGH OF AN
ORGANIZED AREAWIDE THREAT FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION NEAR THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU...FULL HEATING OCCURRING AREAWIDE WITH NEARLY CLOUD FREE
SKY. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK CAP EVIDENT IN MODELS /MOST CLEARLY IN
RUC/ AND BUF 12Z SOUNDING WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY FOR
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MESOANALYSIS REVEALS CAPES ALREADY IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHILE CAP IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AND 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE OCCURRING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN
BUF SOUNDING WAS 87 DEGREES...SYRACUSE AS OF 10 AM WAS ALREADY
HITTING IT.

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO PLACE DETERMINISTIC POPS ON EXPECTED
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT. FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE THAT IS SET TO PASS THROUGH /AS DEPICTED BY
WRF-ARW VORTICITY FIELD AND HRRR QPF FIELD/ 16Z WEST TO 20Z EAST.
GIVEN GREAT DIURNAL HEATING TIMING AND WEAKENING CAP...THIS
FEATURE ALOFT SHOULD TIP THE SCALE AND RESULT IN AND ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AS A MAIN THREAT...WITH FAT CAPES BLASTING THROUGH AND BEYOND
MINUS-20 CELSIUS LEVEL...SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS PRETTY MUDDLED...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST WEAK
MESOCYCLONES FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE...OR
INTERSECTIONS OF BOWING SEGMENTS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
OVERALL...COMPARED TO OUR DATABASE OF PAST EVENTS...ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF AT LEAST BROKEN LINES WITH BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH AT LEAST
SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND REPORTS IF NOT MORE ORGANIZED.

THIS IS NOT QUITE SO SIMPLE AS A SINGLE CONVECTIVE
LINE...HOWEVER. THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LINGERS BEHIND...SET TO
ARRIVE 20Z OR SO WEST TO 01Z EAST. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
SECOND LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES WILL DICTATE HOW QUICKLY AND HOW WELL THIS
SECONDARY LINE WILL ORGANIZE...INCLUDING INFLUENCES IN WAKE OF
FIRST LINE /THAT IS...HOW MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IS USED UP/.
POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS POTENTIAL SECOND BATCH...AND ALSO
CLEANED OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY END BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM UPDATE...
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRYING WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM...HOWEVER...A PART OF THAT WILL BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES/DIURNAL HEATING WILL
HELP REALIZE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN TODAY...YET ADEQUATE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
COVERAGE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

COURTESY OF THAT SECONDARY FRONT...EVEN COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCLUDE
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES...YET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BELOW
TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS AND WAS THUS ABLE TO KEEP MENTION OF
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES IN
40S AREA WIDE BY DAWN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
XTNDD PD FEATURES A LRG UPR LOW BRINGING UNSETTLED WX TO THE FCST
AREA. SFC FNTL BNDRY PASSES LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT USHERING IN
COOLER AIR AS THE UPR LOW SETTLES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AFT A
BRIEF PD OF DRY WX DIRECTLY BHD THE FNT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR LOW ROTATES INTO THE FCST AREA AND LINGERS THRU MUCH OF
THE PD. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE BLO NRML WITH H8 TEMPS TO ARND 8C.
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT LATE IN THE PD...BUT WAA MAY GENERATE A FEW
SHWRS THRU MON.

WITH ONGOING SVR WX...RELIED ON HPC GUID FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD
PD...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SVR WX XPCTD AHD OF AN APRCHG FNTL BNDRY INVOF ALL TAF
SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LRG HAIL ALSO
PSBL. SLOW IMPRVMT XPCTD THIS EVE WITH THE LACK OF HTG AND AS THE
BNDRY PUSHES EWRD. SOME PTCHY MVFR PSBL IN ELM AS THE BNDRY LYR
DECPS LATE. VFR XPCTD WED AS MORE STABLE AIR MVES IN

.OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
544 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYZ045-046-056-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-302145-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-
WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
544 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SEND IN REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS OR HAIL TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HEDEN

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-055-PAZ038-302145-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-TIOGA-
BRADFORD-
544 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IS OVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HEDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
512 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             3 S BOONVILLE           43.44N  75.33W
05/29/2012  E1.00 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   PUBLIC

&&

BLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
515 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             WALTON                  42.17N  75.13W
05/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       DELAWARE           NY   PUBLIC

&&

BLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
517 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SWEET VALLEY            41.28N  76.15W
05/29/2012                   LUZERNE            PA   911 CENTER

            TREES DOWN AND BLOCKING IDE ROAD IN SWEET VALLEY

&&

BLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
519 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             DELHI                   42.28N  74.91W
05/29/2012  M0.75 INCH       DELAWARE           NY   PUBLIC

&&

BLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
522 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             2 N SHERBURNE           42.71N  75.50W
05/29/2012  M0.88 INCH       CHENANGO           NY   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK

&&

HEDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
526 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKEMONT                42.52N  76.92W
05/29/2012                   YATES              NY   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

BLL