Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Binghamton, NY

473 
WWUS51 KBGM 291915
SVSBGM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYC011-097-099-101-123-291925-
/O.CAN.KBGM.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120529T1930Z/
YATES NY-SCHUYLER NY-SENECA NY-STEUBEN NY-CAYUGA NY-
315 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CAYUGA...EAST
CENTRAL STEUBEN...SOUTHERN SENECA...NORTHERN SCHUYLER AND EASTERN
YATES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

SEVERE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF THE AREA... AND THE 
WARNING IS CANCELLED. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT 
TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL 
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4248 7703 4270 7709 4284 7666 4263 7650
      4262 7667 4258 7664 4255 7659 4255 7669
      4246 7669 4243 7677 4232 7733 4232 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 260DEG 34KT 4259 7641

$$

MSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL RUN INTO A VERY WARM AND HUMID UNSTABLE AIR
MASS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. DRIER AIR
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT A SECOND FRONT
WILL STILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WEDNESDAY. EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED FOR LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT OVERALL
THINGS ARE EVOLVING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE IN. ALL THAT HAS CHANGED IS THE
CERTAINTY /EVEN MORE/. SPC HAS UPGRADED MOST OF OUR AREA TO
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...AND ENTIRE CWA IS NOW UNDER A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. MOSTLY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH DEWPOINTS OF UPPER 60S...HAS YIELDED A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR THE APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD FRONT TO PLAY
WITH. STORMS ARE ALREADY WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT WESTERN
PA/NY...THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY. REST OF DISCUSSION BELOW STILL
APPLIES.

ALSO...1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY AROUND 2
INCHES PLUS...WITH SOME SUB-COUNTY AREAS AS LOW AS 1.5 INCHES.
WHILE STORMS IN GENERAL WILL MOVE ALONG AT A GOOD ENOUGH PACE TO
PREVENT FLASH FLOODING...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF
ANY SPECIFIC LOCATIONS THAT GET MORE THAN ONE STORM...COULD HAVE
LOCALIZED FLOOD ISSUES. AT THIS TIME...DOES NOT APPEAR TO ENOUGH OF AN
ORGANIZED AREAWIDE THREAT FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION NEAR THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU...FULL HEATING OCCURRING AREAWIDE WITH NEARLY CLOUD FREE
SKY. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK CAP EVIDENT IN MODELS /MOST CLEARLY IN
RUC/ AND BUF 12Z SOUNDING WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY FOR
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MESOANALYSIS REVEALS CAPES ALREADY IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHILE CAP IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AND 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE OCCURRING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN
BUF SOUNDING WAS 87 DEGREES...SYRACUSE AS OF 10 AM WAS ALREADY
HITTING IT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED
INCLUDING SEVERAL OF OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...AND WE FIGURE THAT
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA COULD BE PLACED IN A
LATER WATCH.

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO PLACE DETERMINISTIC POPS ON EXPECTED
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT. FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE THAT IS SET TO PASS THROUGH /AS DEPICTED BY
WRF-ARW VORTICITY FIELD AND HRRR QPF FIELD/ 16Z WEST TO 20Z EAST.
GIVEN GREAT DIURNAL HEATING TIMING AND WEAKENING CAP...THIS
FEATURE ALOFT SHOULD TIP THE SCALE AND RESULT IN AND ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AS A MAIN THREAT...WITH FAT CAPES BLASTING THROUGH AND BEYOND
MINUS-20 CELSIUS LEVEL...SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS PRETTY MUDDLED...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST WEAK
MESOCYCLONES FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE...OR
INTERSECTIONS OF BOWING SEGMENTS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
OVERALL...COMPARED TO OUR DATABASE OF PAST EVENTS...ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF AT LEAST BROKEN LINES WITH BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH AT LEAST
SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND REPORTS IF NOT MORE ORGANIZED.

THIS IS NOT QUITE SO SIMPLE AS A SINGLE CONVECTIVE
LINE...HOWEVER. THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LINGERS BEHIND...SET TO
ARRIVE 20Z OR SO WEST TO 01Z EAST. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
SECOND LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MESOSCALE INFLUENCES WILL DICTATE HOW QUICKLY AND HOW
WELL THIS SECONDARY LINE WILL ORGANIZE...INCLUDING INFLUENCES IN
WAKE OF FIRST LINE /THAT IS...HOW MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IS USED
UP/. POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS POTENTIAL SECOND BATCH...AND
ALSO CLEANED OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY END BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
CAA AND DRYING WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. WEDNESDAY A
WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
WANING. SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY
ACROSS THE TERRAIN. WED NGT MOSTLY PRECIP FREE AND COLDER WITH
MINS IN THE 50S TO A60. WITH DRYING FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

THURSDAY AGAIN COOLER. WEAK FORCING AND NW FLOW COULD CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY BUT ONLY SCHC. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW AND MID 40S BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
XTNDD PD FEATURES A LRG UPR LOW BRINGING UNSETTLED WX TO THE FCST
AREA. SFC FNTL BNDRY PASSES LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT USHERING IN
COOLER AIR AS THE UPR LOW SETTLES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AFT A
BRIEF PD OF DRY WX DIRECTLY BHD THE FNT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR LOW ROTATES INTO THE FCST AREA AND LINGERS THRU MUCH OF
THE PD. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE BLO NRML WITH H8 TEMPS TO ARND 8C.
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT LATE IN THE PD...BUT WAA MAY GENERATE A FEW
SHWRS THRU MON.

WITH ONGOING SVR WX...RELIED ON HPC GUID FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD
PD...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WIDESPREAD SVR WX XPCTD AHD OF AN APRCHG FNTL BNDRY INVOF ALL TAF
SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LRG HAIL ALSO
PSBL. SLOW IMPRVMT XPCTD THIS EVE WITH THE LACK OF HTG AND AS THE
BNDRY PUSHES EWRD. SOME PTCHY MVFR PSBL IN ELM AS THE BNDRY LYR
DECPS LATE. VFR XPCTD WED AS MORE STABLE AIR MVES IN

.OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
119 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYZ009-024-025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072-301730-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
119 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NYZ015>018-022-023-301730-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-
119 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             3 E CORNING             42.15N  77.00W
05/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       STEUBEN            NY   PUBLIC

&&

EMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
210 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             FORESTPORT              43.45N  75.22W
05/29/2012  M1.25 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   PUBLIC

&&

EMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
216 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 PM     HAIL             2 S WATERLOO            42.88N  76.86W
05/29/2012  M1.25 INCH       SENECA             NY   PUBLIC

&&

EMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             4 S BOONVILLE           43.42N  75.33W
05/29/2012  M1.50 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   PUBLIC

            MOST OF THE HAIL WAS 1 INCH DIAMETER

&&

BLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
226 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND GST     MEMPHIS                 43.08N  76.38W
05/29/2012  E60 MPH          ONONDAGA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
227 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             SYRACUSE                43.04N  76.14W
05/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       ONONDAGA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BLL