Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1211 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL RUN INTO A VERY WARM AND HUMID UNSTABLE AIR
MASS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. DRIER AIR
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT A SECOND FRONT
WILL STILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WEDNESDAY. EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION NEAR THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU...FULL HEATING OCCURRING AREAWIDE WITH NEARLY CLOUD
FREE SKY. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK CAP EVIDENT IN MODELS /MOST CLEARLY
IN RUC/ AND BUF 12Z SOUNDING WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY FOR
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MESOANALYSIS REVEALS CAPES ALREADY IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHILE CAP IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AND 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE OCCURRING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN
BUF SOUNDING WAS 87 DEGREES...SYRACUSE AS OF 10 AM WAS ALREADY
HITTING IT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED
INCLUDING SEVERAL OF OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...AND WE FIGURE THAT
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA COULD BE PLACED IN A
LATER WATCH.

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO PLACE DETERMINISTIC POPS ON EXPECTED
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT. FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE THAT IS SET TO PASS THROUGH /AS DEPICTED BY
WRF-ARW VORTICITY FIELD AND HRRR QPF FIELD/ 16Z WEST TO 20Z EAST.
GIVEN GREAT DIURNAL HEATING TIMING AND WEAKENING CAP...THIS
FEATURE ALOFT SHOULD TIP THE SCALE AND RESULT IN AND ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AS A MAIN THREAT...WITH FAT CAPES BLASTING THROUGH AND BEYOND
MINUS-20 CELSIUS LEVEL...SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS PRETTY MUDDLED...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST WEAK
MESOCYCLONES FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE...OR
INTERSECTIONS OF BOWING SEGMENTS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
OVERALL...COMPARED TO OUR DATABASE OF PAST EVENTS...ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF AT LEAST BROKEN LINES WITH BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH AT LEAST
SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND REPORTS IF NOT MORE ORGANIZED.

THIS IS NOT QUITE SO SIMPLE AS A SINGLE CONVECTIVE
LINE...HOWEVER. THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LINGERS BEHIND...SET TO
ARRIVE 20Z OR SO WEST TO 01Z EAST. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
SECOND LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MESOSCALE INFLUENCES WILL DICTATE HOW QUICKLY AND HOW
WELL THIS SECONDARY LINE WILL ORGANIZE...INCLUDING INFLUENCES IN
WAKE OF FIRST LINE /THAT IS...HOW MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IS USED
UP/. POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS POTENTIAL SECOND BATCH...AND
ALSO CLEANED OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY END BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
CAA AND DRYING WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. WEDNESDAY A
WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
WANING. SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY
ACROSS THE TERRAIN. WED NGT MOSTLY PRECIP FREE AND COLDER WITH
MINS IN THE 50S TO A60. WITH DRYING FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD.

THURSDAY AGAIN COOLER. WEAK FORCING AND NW FLOW COULD CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NY BUT ONLY SCHC. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW AND MID 40S BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

XTNDD PD FEATURES A LRG UPR LOW BRINGING UNSETTLED WX TO THE FCST
AREA. SFC FNTL BNDRY PASSES LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT USHERING IN
COOLER AIR AS THE UPR LOW SETTLES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AFT A
BRIEF PD OF DRY WX DIRECTLY BHD THE FNT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR LOW ROTATES INTO THE FCST AREA AND LINGERS THRU MUCH OF
THE PD. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE BLO NRML WITH H8 TEMPS TO ARND 8C.
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT LATE IN THE PD...BUT WAA MAY GENERATE A FEW
SHWRS THRU MON.

WITH ONGOING SVR WX...RELIED ON HPC GUID FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD
PD...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG DID NOT DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UNEXPECTEDLY ROSE
OVERNIGHT, INCREASING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. THE MAIN CONCERN NOW
TURNS TO CONVECTION.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM JUST NORTH OF SYR TO JUST
NORTH OF RME THROUGH MID MORNING. THEREAFTER CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPORARY MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS.

.OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1033 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYZ009-024-025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072-301445-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
1033 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NYZ015>018-022-023-301445-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-
1033 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1252 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYZ022-291715-
STEUBEN NY-
1252 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN COUNTY...

* AT 1249 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND VERY
  HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOODHULL...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ADDISON AND RISINGVILLE AT 105 PM EDT...
  ERWINS AND LINDLEY AT 110 PM EDT...
  GANG MILLS AND COOPERS PLAINS AT 115 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4209 7749 4231 7721 4220 7701 4205 7697
      4200 7697 4200 7742

CMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     HAIL             1 NNE VINE VALLEY       42.73N  77.31W
05/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       YATES              NY   PUBLIC

&&

EMG