Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
311 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL FINISH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
FILL IN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT A SECOND
FRONT WILL STILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...A WETTER PERIOD IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED FOR LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS...BUT OVERALL
THINGS ARE EVOLVING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK WELL UNDERWAY. ONE ADJUSTMENT THAT HAS BEEN MADE
THOUGH...IS TO FOCUS CONVECTION MORE EXCLUSIVELY ON THE VORTICITY
LOBE...AND MUCH LESS ON THE FRONT ITSELF. IN OTHER WORDS...APPEARS
TO BE ONE MAIN BATCH VERSUS TWO SEPARATE ONES.

WHAT BEGAN AS DISCRETE LARGE CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...WITH GREATER
THAN 2K J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE...IS EVOLVING WITH TIME TO MORE OF
AN ORGANIZED LINE WITH A HIGH WIND THREAT. ENTIRE CWA IS UNDER A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...AND ABOUT 13 WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE EVENT SO FAR. UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE STORMS...WITH DEWPOINTS OF UPPER 60S...YIELDED A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR THE APPROACHING WAVE AND COLD FRONT TO PLAY
WITH.

ALSO...1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY AROUND 2
INCHES PLUS...WITH SOME SUB-COUNTY AREAS AS LOW AS 1.5 INCHES.
WHILE STORMS IN GENERAL WILL MOVE ALONG AT A GOOD ENOUGH PACE TO
PREVENT FLASH FLOODING...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF
ANY SPECIFIC LOCATIONS THAT GET MORE THAN ONE STORM...COULD HAVE
LOCALIZED FLOOD ISSUES. AT THIS TIME...DOES NOT APPEAR TO ENOUGH OF AN
ORGANIZED AREAWIDE THREAT FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION NEAR THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU...FULL HEATING OCCURRING AREAWIDE WITH NEARLY CLOUD FREE
SKY. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK CAP EVIDENT IN MODELS /MOST CLEARLY IN
RUC/ AND BUF 12Z SOUNDING WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY FOR
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MESOANALYSIS REVEALS CAPES ALREADY IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHILE CAP IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
AND 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE OCCURRING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN
BUF SOUNDING WAS 87 DEGREES...SYRACUSE AS OF 10 AM WAS ALREADY
HITTING IT.

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO PLACE DETERMINISTIC POPS ON EXPECTED
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT. FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE THAT IS SET TO PASS THROUGH /AS DEPICTED BY
WRF-ARW VORTICITY FIELD AND HRRR QPF FIELD/ 16Z WEST TO 20Z EAST.
GIVEN GREAT DIURNAL HEATING TIMING AND WEAKENING CAP...THIS
FEATURE ALOFT SHOULD TIP THE SCALE AND RESULT IN AND ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AS A MAIN THREAT...WITH FAT CAPES BLASTING THROUGH AND BEYOND
MINUS-20 CELSIUS LEVEL...SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS PRETTY MUDDLED...BUT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST WEAK
MESOCYCLONES FOR ANY DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF MAIN LINE...OR
INTERSECTIONS OF BOWING SEGMENTS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
OVERALL...COMPARED TO OUR DATABASE OF PAST EVENTS...ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF AT LEAST BROKEN LINES WITH BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH AT LEAST
SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND REPORTS IF NOT MORE ORGANIZED.

THIS IS NOT QUITE SO SIMPLE AS A SINGLE CONVECTIVE
LINE...HOWEVER. THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LINGERS BEHIND...SET TO
ARRIVE 20Z OR SO WEST TO 01Z EAST. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
SECOND LINE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES WILL DICTATE HOW QUICKLY AND HOW WELL THIS
SECONDARY LINE WILL ORGANIZE...INCLUDING INFLUENCES IN WAKE OF
FIRST LINE /THAT IS...HOW MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IS USED UP/.
POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THIS POTENTIAL SECOND BATCH...AND ALSO
CLEANED OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY END BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM UPDATE...
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRYING WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM...HOWEVER...A PART OF THAT WILL BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES/DIURNAL HEATING WILL
HELP REALIZE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN TODAY...YET ADEQUATE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
COVERAGE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

COURTESY OF THAT SECONDARY FRONT...EVEN COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCLUDE
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES...YET WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BELOW
TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS AND WAS THUS ABLE TO KEEP MENTION OF
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES IN
40S AREA WIDE BY DAWN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
XTNDD PD FEATURES A LRG UPR LOW BRINGING UNSETTLED WX TO THE FCST
AREA. SFC FNTL BNDRY PASSES LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT USHERING IN
COOLER AIR AS THE UPR LOW SETTLES OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. AFT A
BRIEF PD OF DRY WX DIRECTLY BHD THE FNT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPR LOW ROTATES INTO THE FCST AREA AND LINGERS THRU MUCH OF
THE PD. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE BLO NRML WITH H8 TEMPS TO ARND 8C.
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT LATE IN THE PD...BUT WAA MAY GENERATE A FEW
SHWRS THRU MON.

WITH ONGOING SVR WX...RELIED ON HPC GUID FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD
PD...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SVR WX XPCTD AHD OF AN APRCHG FNTL BNDRY INVOF ALL TAF
SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LRG HAIL ALSO
PSBL. SLOW IMPRVMT XPCTD THIS EVE WITH THE LACK OF HTG AND AS THE
BNDRY PUSHES EWRD. SOME PTCHY MVFR PSBL IN ELM AS THE BNDRY LYR
DECPS LATE. VFR XPCTD WED AS MORE STABLE AIR MVES IN

.OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...MVFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

NYZ009-024-025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072-301945-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
331 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NYZ015>018-022-023-301945-
YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-
331 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HAS ENDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NO LONGER NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT YOU ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT THAT HAPPENED WITH THE
EARLIER STORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
253 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             AVA                     43.42N  75.48W
05/29/2012  E2.00 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   PUBLIC

&&

BLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
254 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     HAIL             1 NNW VINE VALLEY       42.73N  77.32W
05/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       YATES              NY   PUBLIC

0131 PM     HAIL             2 WNW BREWERTON         43.25N  76.18W
05/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       ONONDAGA           NY   PUBLIC

0131 PM     HAIL             2 S WATERLOO            42.88N  76.86W
05/29/2012  M1.25 INCH       SENECA             NY   PUBLIC

0133 PM     HAIL             CORNING                 42.15N  77.06W
05/29/2012  M1.25 INCH       STEUBEN            NY   PUBLIC

0135 PM     HAIL             AVA                     43.42N  75.48W
05/29/2012  E2.00 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   PUBLIC

0140 PM     HAIL             3 E CORNING             42.15N  77.00W
05/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       STEUBEN            NY   PUBLIC

0155 PM     HAIL             4 S BOONVILLE           43.42N  75.33W
05/29/2012  M1.50 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   PUBLIC

            MOST OF THE HAIL WAS 1 INCH DIAMETER

0200 PM     HAIL             FORESTPORT              43.45N  75.22W
05/29/2012  M1.25 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   PUBLIC

0210 PM     TSTM WND GST     MEMPHIS                 43.08N  76.38W
05/29/2012  E60 MPH          ONONDAGA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JORDAN                  43.07N  76.47W
05/29/2012                   ONONDAGA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE AND FENCE DOWN DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST

0215 PM     HAIL             SYRACUSE                43.04N  76.14W
05/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       ONONDAGA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0230 PM     TSTM WND GST     TULLY                   42.80N  76.11W
05/29/2012  E60 MPH          ONONDAGA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0233 PM     HAIL             SEMPRONIUS              42.73N  76.32W
05/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       CAYUGA             NY   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK

&&

BLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
303 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKEMONT                42.52N  76.92W
05/29/2012                   YATES              NY   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN

&&

BLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAYETTE                 42.82N  76.80W
05/29/2012                   SENECA             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE REPORTED TO A TRAILER PARK IN FAYETTE. THERE WAS
            A REPORT OF AN UNCONFIRMED POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

BLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
329 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SENECA FALLS            42.91N  76.80W
05/29/2012                   SENECA             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALSO IN THE VILLAGE OF WATERLOO...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN
            IN BOTH SENACA FALLS AND WATERLOO. LOCAL STATE OF
            EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR BOTH LOCATIONS AND ALSO FOR
            FAYETTE.

&&

BLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWARK VALLEY           42.22N  76.19W
05/29/2012                   TIOGA              NY   911 CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

BLL