Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND
THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISCRETE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR VERY
CLOSELY. TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
INTENSIFYING SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED QLCS WAS FAST APPROACHING
THE I81 CORRIDOR AND THIS WILL TRANSVERSE THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SIG TOR PARAMETER WERE ELEVATED WITH VALUES GREATER
THAN 2 AND 0-1KM EHI VALUES 2-3...SO TOR THREAT REMAINS. WIND
GUSTS OF 55-65KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LINE...AND GIVEN THE
STRENGTHEN MID LEVEL WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHER
VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE AS THE
TROUGH EXITS AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT TODAY...EFP WILL NOT BE
UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON AT THIS AND MOST ADJACENT OFFICES. EFP IS
A FAIR WX FORECAST THROUGHOUT.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL INTO THURSDAY.  A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE ANTICYCLONE WILL
SHIFT E/SE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY WITH MILDER AIR
FUNNELING IN OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.  HIGHS FOR WED WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO M70S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS AND U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/HPC GUIDANCE THAT THE STRING OF FAIR AND DRY
DAYS WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST WITH THE SFC HIGH NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF AN H500 UPPER TROUGH.  THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
OF SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND
THE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL AND PCPN BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION
AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WE WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A VCSH AND
A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MAIN SQUALL LINE
WAS FAST APPROACHING WITH LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION PLACING THIS LINE
INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY CLOSE TO 21Z. WE WILL PLACE THIS INTO
THE THE TAFS WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR HIGHER WINDS.

THIS SQUALL LINE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR INTO IFR
THRESHOLDS...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENTS WITH FROPA THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF FROPA WITH
SOME EARLY GUSTS TO THE 20KT RANGE...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND
THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UP TO 2
INCHES JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS AS THE MOVE THROUGH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF HALF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND THERE
WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-091100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1245 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 637 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOW REQUESTED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDINBURG                43.23N  74.09W
09/08/2012                   SARATOGA           NY   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200201

IRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
405 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RICHMONDVILLE           42.63N  74.56W
09/08/2012                   SCHOHARIE          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES ON WIRES

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200202

IRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THURMAN                 43.53N  73.92W
09/08/2012                   WARREN             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200203

IRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
412 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCHOHARIE               42.67N  74.31W
09/08/2012                   SCHOHARIE          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200204

IRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCHENECTADY             42.80N  73.93W
09/08/2012                   SCHENECTADY        NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200205

IRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENVILLE              42.39N  74.00W
09/08/2012                   GREENE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200206

IRL