Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND
THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISCRETE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR VERY
CLOSELY. TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
INTENSIFYING SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED QLCS WAS FAST APPROACHING
THE I81 CORRIDOR AND THIS WILL TRANSVERSE THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SIG TOR PARAMETER WERE ELEVATED WITH VALUES GREATER
THAN 2 AND 0-1KM EHI VALUES 2-3...SO TOR THREAT REMAINS. WIND
GUSTS OF 55-65KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LINE...AND GIVEN THE
STRENGTHEN MID LEVEL WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHER
VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS
WILL BE USHERED IN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE AS THE
TROUGH EXITS AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT TODAY...EFP WILL NOT BE
UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON AT THIS AND MOST ADJACENT OFFICES. EFP IS
A FAIR WX FORECAST THROUGHOUT.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL INTO THURSDAY.  A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TEMPS WILL START ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT THE ANTICYCLONE WILL
SHIFT E/SE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY WITH MILDER AIR
FUNNELING IN OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.  HIGHS FOR WED WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO M70S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS AND U70S TO L80S IN THE
VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/HPC GUIDANCE THAT THE STRING OF FAIR AND DRY
DAYS WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST WITH THE SFC HIGH NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
AHEAD OF AN H500 UPPER TROUGH.  THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
OF SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND
THE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL AND PCPN BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION
AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WE WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A VCSH AND
A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MAIN SQUALL LINE
WAS FAST APPROACHING WITH LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION PLACING THIS LINE
INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY CLOSE TO 21Z. WE WILL PLACE THIS INTO
THE THE TAFS WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR HIGHER WINDS.

THIS SQUALL LINE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR INTO IFR
THRESHOLDS...WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENTS WITH FROPA THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF FROPA WITH
SOME EARLY GUSTS TO THE 20KT RANGE...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND
THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UP TO 2
INCHES JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS AS THE MOVE THROUGH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF HALF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND THERE
WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-091100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1245 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 637 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOW REQUESTED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

CTZ001-013-081945-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-
321 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...

AT 316 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR LITCHFIELD...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TORRINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TORRINGTON BY 330 PM EDT
WINSTED BY 340 PM EDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW
YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4201 7327 4191 7294 4157 7333 4166 7348
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 213DEG 30KT 4178 7326

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
328 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N FONDA               42.97N  74.37W
09/08/2012                   MONTGOMERY         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200196

IRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GLOVERSVILLE            43.05N  74.35W
09/08/2012                   FULTON             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200197

IRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYFIELD                43.10N  74.27W
09/08/2012                   FULTON             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200198

IRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
341 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CANAJOHARIE             42.90N  74.57W
09/08/2012                   MONTGOMERY         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200200

IRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
342 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTHFIELD              41.69N  73.11W
09/08/2012                   LITCHFIELD         CT   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN ON WIRES

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ILION                   43.01N  75.04W
09/08/2012                   HERKIMER           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON EAST NORTH STREET

0212 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DOLGEVILLE              43.10N  74.77W
09/08/2012                   HERKIMER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LITTLE FALLS            43.05N  74.86W
09/08/2012                   HERKIMER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN

0248 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. JOHNSVILLE          43.00N  74.68W
09/08/2012                   MONTGOMERY         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

0257 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CANAJOHARIE             42.90N  74.57W
09/08/2012                   MONTGOMERY         NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

0316 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GLOVERSVILLE            43.05N  74.35W
09/08/2012                   FULTON             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N FONDA               42.97N  74.37W
09/08/2012                   MONTGOMERY         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN

0321 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYFIELD                43.10N  74.27W
09/08/2012                   FULTON             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200192 ALY1200194 ALY1200193 ALY1200195 ALY1200199
ALY1200200 ALY1200197 ALY1200196 ALY1200198

IRL