Small Craft Advisory 686, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Nov 16, 2012, 12:32 PM AKST (21:32 UTC)

Expired

Nov 16, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

3 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

917 
FZAK52 PAJK 162132 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1232 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-170100-
1232 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR
AND YUKON FRIDAY. A 984 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.   

$$

PKZ041-170100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1232 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-170100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1232 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL.
RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-170100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1232 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-170100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1232 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-170100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1232 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. RAIN
LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Nov 16, 5:51 AM AKST, 6 hours 41 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
551 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS MOVING INTO OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY FROM THE NORTH, AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SW. BOTH OF THESE FEATUERS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND
THE NORTH GULF COAST. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE SMALL
AND CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 THE OCCLUDED FRONT IN THE GULF HAS A PARENT LOW OF ABOUT 982 MB
300 NM S OF CORDOVA AT THIS TIME. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM THE VICINITY OF THE LOW TO THE NE AND IN AN ARC TO THE SE
CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE. AT THIS TIME THE CLOSEST SECTION OF THE
OCCLUSION IS ABOUT 100 NM SW OF A SITKA TO KETCHIKAN LINE. THE
LOW IS IN A CYCLONIC INTERACTION WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW ABOUT
600 NM S OF CORDOVA. THIS DUMBELLING OF LOWS HAS PROVIDED A
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FRONT APPROACING THE
PANHANDLE AND ENHANCES THE DEFFORMATION FIELD OVER THE ENTIRE
PANHADNLE.

 A LARGE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED
 BY A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ALOFT THAT EXTENDS N ALONG MERIDIAN
180 DEGREES. THE SOUNDING AT WHITEHORSE YT SHOWS THE DEPTH OF
ARCITC AIR TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THIS ARCTIC OUTFLOW IS SUFFICIENT FOR THE FREEZING
SPRAY ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL TONIGHT. PLEASE NOTE THE
MARINE AND PUBLIC TABLES BELOW.

.LONG TERM...MADE MAINLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...GENERALLY
FROM SAT THROUGH MON. STILL LOOKS LIKE SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREFERRED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH
TO MINIMIZE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR
GETS AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP GETS. DECREASED THE POPS UP
NORTH SAT AND SUN AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL GET SHEARED APART BEFORE REACHING THE NORTH DURING
THAT TIME. TEMPS WERE LOWERED SOME OVER THE NORTH SAT-MON BASED ON
MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH LARGEST CHANGES OVER THE FAR NORTH.

 FOR SAT INTO SUN...A WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN AREA LATE SAT AFTERNOON THEN SHEAR APART AS IT REACHES
THE NORTH SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE WINDY SIDE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERIOR PASSES AND OVER THE
NORTH. DID NOT EXTEND ANY PUBLIC HEADLINES INTO THE LONGER RANGE
BUT THERE MAY NEED TO BE SOME WIND HEADLINES ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
OVER THE NORTH. LOCALLY IN JUNEAU...THERE IS A RISK OF A TAKU
WIND EVENT SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING BUT MODELS DISAGREE
ON HOW STRONG THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL BE AND HOW WELL PLACED
THE CRITICAL LEVEL WILL BE...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED THIS IN THE
FORECAST AS OF YET.

 DID MENTION SOME FREEZING SPRAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
AND GLACIER BAY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING SPRAY FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL SAT MORNING AS WELL.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-032-034-036-043-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031-033-035-041-042-052.

&&

JBT/RWT

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.