Gale Warning 348, NWS Juneau, AK

938 
FZAK67 PAJK 161230
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-170100-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR
AND YUKON FRIDAY. A 984 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.   

$$

PKZ310-170100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF. EVIDENCE OF SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE
INTERIOR ALSO PRESENT ON IMAGERY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE A TRANSITION TO
STRATIFORM THIS EVENING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND RADAR DATA
OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

 AS THE HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR BUILDS SOUTH, LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW IN MANY LOCATIONS. HAVE A TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE MORE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AS A RESULT WITH UP TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE NORTH OF ICY STRAIT. ELSEWHERE,
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING, THOUGH.

 AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND WITH THE LOW REMAINING QUASI-
STATIONARY IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF, A STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SET UP TONIGHT. HAVE STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY FOR TOMORROW AS WELL AS A
NORTHERLY GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY
TOMORROW. NORTHERLY/EASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR REMAINING
INNER CHANNELS DOWN TO FIVE FINGERS LIGHT AS WELL. THE LOW
OFFSHORE WILL ALSO HAVE GALES ASSOCIATED WITH IN OVER THE COASTAL
MARINE ZONES TOMORROW FROM CAPE DECISION TO ICY BAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ON THE INSIDE, EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY GALE WARNING FOR CLARENCE STRAIT TOMORROW MORNING.

 WATER AND AIR TEMPERATURES STILL A LITTLE TOO WARM TO RESULT IN
FREEZING SPRAY, SO HAVE LEFT THOSE HEADLINES AND WARNINGS OUT OF
THE MARINE PRODUCTS.

 WIND GRIDS BASED ON NAM, WHICH WAS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN GFS IN
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT OUT STRONG
WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONE 27 AND WESTERN ZONE 26 WHICH WOULD HAVE
BEEN WARRANTED PER GFS GUIDANCE. BLENDED ECMWF, GEM, AND GFS FOR
POP AND QPF FIELDS. TEMPS ADJUSTED WITH BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND
NAM. SNOW LEVELS BASED ON GFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL DOMINATE A MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS OUTBREAK IS
THE RESULT OF THE STRONG HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUING TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH COMBINED
WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW IN THE GULF WILL CREATE A VERY TIGHT
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE INNER CHANNELS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 50 KT ARE ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SKAGWAY
AND JUNEAU INCREASES TO 7 TO 8 MILLIBARS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREAS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL STRONG WIND HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 40 IN THE
SOUTH. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A POTENTIAL TAKU WIND EVENT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. HAVE INCREASED GUSTS IN THIS AREA TO 35 MPH
FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD...DRY AIR REALLY
BEGINS TO FILTER DOWN INTO THE AREA. BY THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE COOLED ENOUGH FOR NORTHERN AREAS TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AN INCH
BEFORE ENDING. A COUPLE OF DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC WAVES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE GULF WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES IMPACTS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO THE
NORTH WILL LIMIT THE NORTHERN ADVANCEMENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW COULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE
JUNEAU AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW FREEZING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY HAVE INCLUDED FREEZING
SPRAY IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL WAS INCLUDED ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COLDER AIR REACHES THAT AREA AND LOWS DROP BELOW FREEZING.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
NORTHERLIES CONTINUE.

USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/EC THROUGH MONDAY THEN TRANSITIONED TO
MAINLY AN HPC SOLUTION FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-012-022-036-042-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-031>035-041-052.

&&

FRITSCH/TPS