Gale Warning 384, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Nov 16, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Nov 16, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

867 
FZAK51 PAJK 161240
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-170100-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR
AND YUKON FRIDAY. A 984 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.   

$$

PKZ011-170100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE
EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-170100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT LATE. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-170100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-170100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-170100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
RAIN AND SNOW LATE. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-170100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT N 45 KT NORTH OF TAKU INLET.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-170100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-170100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-170100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-170100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING.  
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-170100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 15, 3:49 PM AKST, 12 hours 11 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF. EVIDENCE OF SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE
INTERIOR ALSO PRESENT ON IMAGERY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE A TRANSITION TO
STRATIFORM THIS EVENING BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND RADAR DATA
OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

 AS THE HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR BUILDS SOUTH, LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW IN MANY LOCATIONS. HAVE A TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE MORE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AS A RESULT WITH UP TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE NORTH OF ICY STRAIT. ELSEWHERE,
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING, THOUGH.

 AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND WITH THE LOW REMAINING QUASI-
STATIONARY IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF, A STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SET UP TONIGHT. HAVE STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY FOR TOMORROW AS WELL AS A
NORTHERLY GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY
TOMORROW. NORTHERLY/EASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR REMAINING
INNER CHANNELS DOWN TO FIVE FINGERS LIGHT AS WELL. THE LOW
OFFSHORE WILL ALSO HAVE GALES ASSOCIATED WITH IN OVER THE COASTAL
MARINE ZONES TOMORROW FROM CAPE DECISION TO ICY BAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ON THE INSIDE, EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY GALE WARNING FOR CLARENCE STRAIT TOMORROW MORNING.

 WATER AND AIR TEMPERATURES STILL A LITTLE TOO WARM TO RESULT IN
FREEZING SPRAY, SO HAVE LEFT THOSE HEADLINES AND WARNINGS OUT OF
THE MARINE PRODUCTS.

 WIND GRIDS BASED ON NAM, WHICH WAS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN GFS IN
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT OUT STRONG
WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONE 27 AND WESTERN ZONE 26 WHICH WOULD HAVE
BEEN WARRANTED PER GFS GUIDANCE. BLENDED ECMWF, GEM, AND GFS FOR
POP AND QPF FIELDS. TEMPS ADJUSTED WITH BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND
NAM. SNOW LEVELS BASED ON GFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL DOMINATE A MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS OUTBREAK IS
THE RESULT OF THE STRONG HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUING TO BUILD
SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH COMBINED
WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW IN THE GULF WILL CREATE A VERY TIGHT
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT. GALE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE INNER CHANNELS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 50 KT ARE ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SKAGWAY
AND JUNEAU INCREASES TO 7 TO 8 MILLIBARS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREAS
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL STRONG WIND HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 40 IN THE
SOUTH. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A POTENTIAL TAKU WIND EVENT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. HAVE INCREASED GUSTS IN THIS AREA TO 35 MPH
FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLD...DRY AIR REALLY
BEGINS TO FILTER DOWN INTO THE AREA. BY THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE COOLED ENOUGH FOR NORTHERN AREAS TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO AN INCH
BEFORE ENDING. A COUPLE OF DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC WAVES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE GULF WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES IMPACTS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO THE
NORTH WILL LIMIT THE NORTHERN ADVANCEMENT OF THIS PRECIPITATION
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW COULD REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE
JUNEAU AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW FREEZING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY HAVE INCLUDED FREEZING
SPRAY IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL WAS INCLUDED ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS COLDER AIR REACHES THAT AREA AND LOWS DROP BELOW FREEZING.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
NORTHERLIES CONTINUE.

USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/EC THROUGH MONDAY THEN TRANSITIONED TO
MAINLY AN HPC SOLUTION FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-012-022-036-042-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-031>035-041-052.

&&

FRITSCH/TPS

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every gale warning in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.