Winter Storm Watch 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
220 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW IS CURRENTLY A 993 MB LOW NOW ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DALL POINT AND IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY INTO A
MAJOR STORM. THERE ARE ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL
CENTRAL PRESSURES AND POSITIONS THROUGH 4 AM WED.
THE STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING EASTERLY GALE TO STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER PKZ210 LATE MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS AND SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND ON TUESDAY AS WELL. A WIND ADVISORY/WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
ZONE 213. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM MAY BRING
SNOW TO ZONES 214-215 BY TUE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES ON MONDAY.

INTERIOR...SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF BLACK STRATUS REMAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY IN THE VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR THE INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...A DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GREENLAND COAST WILL TAKE A TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTH POLE THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TO BANKS ISLAND BY TUE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST POSITION FOR TUE AFTERNOON. A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SET UP ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE ZONE 204 COAST MON NIGHT AND TUE...WHERE WEST WINDS
TO 55 MPH GUSTING TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED...PRODUCING SEVERE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT...GFS/NAM
PROGGING 50-60 KT WINDS FROM ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WELL
ABOVE 850 MB...THE STRONGEST WINDS PASSING ACROSS THE BARTER
ISLAND AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN
ZONE 204 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS 30 TO
45 MPH. BLIZZARD WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ZONES 203 AND 204.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

JK NOV 12