Gale Warning 86, NWS Fairbanks, AK

108 
FZAK52 PAFG 122325
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 PM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-131430-
225 PM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 964 MB LOW 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE
50 NM WEST OF ST PAUL ISLAND BY 3PM AKST TUE. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE NORTHWARD BUT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
AND WEAKEN SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND ON TUE. 

$$

PKZ200-131430-
NORTON SOUND-
225 PM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT.
.TUE...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-131430-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
225 PM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING
TO 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-131430-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
225 PM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-131430-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
225 PM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO NE 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

CC/RT NOV 12

053 
FZAK52 PAFG 131236
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
336 AM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-140345-
336 AM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 956 MB LOW NEAR ADAK WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO BE
100 NM NORTH OF ST PAUL ISLAND BY 3AM AKST WED. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON WED.
THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY BUT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-140345-
NORTON SOUND-
336 AM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.WED...NE WINDS 35 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-140345-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
336 AM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT. STRONGEST WINDS FROM
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WEST. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 50 KT. STRONGEST WINDS FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND WEST. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WINDS 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-140345-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
336 AM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-140345-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
336 AM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

EWP/JK NOV 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
220 PM AKST SUN NOV 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW IS CURRENTLY A 993 MB LOW NOW ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DALL POINT AND IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY INTO A
MAJOR STORM. THERE ARE ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL
CENTRAL PRESSURES AND POSITIONS THROUGH 4 AM WED.
THE STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING EASTERLY GALE TO STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER PKZ210 LATE MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS AND SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND ON TUESDAY AS WELL. A WIND ADVISORY/WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
ZONE 213. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM MAY BRING
SNOW TO ZONES 214-215 BY TUE EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES ON MONDAY.

INTERIOR...SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF BLACK STRATUS REMAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY IN THE VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR THE INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...A DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GREENLAND COAST WILL TAKE A TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTH POLE THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TO BANKS ISLAND BY TUE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST POSITION FOR TUE AFTERNOON. A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SET UP ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ARE EXPECTED. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE ZONE 204 COAST MON NIGHT AND TUE...WHERE WEST WINDS
TO 55 MPH GUSTING TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED...PRODUCING SEVERE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT...GFS/NAM
PROGGING 50-60 KT WINDS FROM ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WELL
ABOVE 850 MB...THE STRONGEST WINDS PASSING ACROSS THE BARTER
ISLAND AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN
ZONE 204 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEST WINDS 30 TO
45 MPH. BLIZZARD WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ZONES 203 AND 204.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

JK NOV 12