Brisk Wind Advisory 162, NWS Fairbanks, AK

053 
FZAK52 PAFG 131236
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
336 AM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-140345-
336 AM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 956 MB LOW NEAR ADAK WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO BE
100 NM NORTH OF ST PAUL ISLAND BY 3AM AKST WED. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON WED.
THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY BUT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-140345-
NORTON SOUND-
336 AM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.WED...NE WINDS 35 KT.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-140345-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
336 AM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT. STRONGEST WINDS FROM
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WEST. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 50 KT. STRONGEST WINDS FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND WEST. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WINDS 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-140345-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
336 AM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-140345-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
336 AM AKST TUE NOV 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

EWP/JK NOV 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
612 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...
OVER THE ARCTIC...LATEST AVAILABLE RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WED. DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH POLE WILL MOVE SOUTH THEN CURVE
EASTWARD TO BE JUST EAST OF BANKS ISLAND BY EARLY WED. TWO SHORT
WAVES WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST...THE FIRST ONE MON EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TUE EVENING. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHS WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST...WITH ISOBAR ORIENTATION FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG WIND SUPPORT ALOFT SHOULD ENHANCE
SURFACE WINDS. SEVERE BLIZZARD WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY OCCUR
AT BARTER ISLAND WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 65 MPH
MON NIGHT AND TUE. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED IN
ZONE 203...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE LOW END AND OF SHORTER DURATION.
AT BARROW...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN 25 MPH.

RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW NOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
APPEARS TO BE WELL HANDLED BY CURRENT MODELS OUT THROUGH
WED. PROGGED CENTRAL PRESSURE AND POSITIONS...

4AM MON     971-974 MB    49N/178E...ABOUT 1000 NM SW OF DALL PT
4AM TUE     952-956 MB    53N/179W...ABOUT 700 NM SW OF DALL PT
4AM WED     972 MB        NEAR OR JUST E OF THE PRIBILOFS

EASTERLY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING IN MARINE AREA
PKZ210 WED NIGHT. EASTERLY GALES DEVELOPING OVER NORTON
SOUND TUE MORNING. NE WINDS INCREASING TO GALE OVER PKZ220
BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS MAY BRING 2-6
INCHES OF SNOW TO ZONE 214-215-SOUTH PARTS OF ZONE 212 TUE
MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT CLIMB TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN ZONE 214 AND
SOUTH PARTS OF ZONE 212-215. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
GET AS FAR NORTH AS NOME AS THE FRONT RAPIDLY STRETCHES OUT
EASTWARD...WITH NORTHWARD MOVEMENT STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH
OF NOME BY EARLY WED.

MODERATELY COLD AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DETERMINED BY CLOUD COVER...MOST INTERIOR AREAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF NOV 12