Small Craft Advisory 180, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
612 AM AKST MON NOV 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...
OVER THE ARCTIC...LATEST AVAILABLE RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WED. DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH POLE WILL MOVE SOUTH THEN CURVE
EASTWARD TO BE JUST EAST OF BANKS ISLAND BY EARLY WED. TWO SHORT
WAVES WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST...THE FIRST ONE MON EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TUE EVENING. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHS WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST...WITH ISOBAR ORIENTATION FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS.
COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG WIND SUPPORT ALOFT SHOULD ENHANCE
SURFACE WINDS. SEVERE BLIZZARD WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY OCCUR
AT BARTER ISLAND WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 65 MPH
MON NIGHT AND TUE. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED IN
ZONE 203...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE LOW END AND OF SHORTER DURATION.
AT BARROW...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH MORE THAN 25 MPH.

RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW NOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
APPEARS TO BE WELL HANDLED BY CURRENT MODELS OUT THROUGH
WED. PROGGED CENTRAL PRESSURE AND POSITIONS...

4AM MON     971-974 MB    49N/178E...ABOUT 1000 NM SW OF DALL PT
4AM TUE     952-956 MB    53N/179W...ABOUT 700 NM SW OF DALL PT
4AM WED     972 MB        NEAR OR JUST E OF THE PRIBILOFS

EASTERLY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING IN MARINE AREA
PKZ210 WED NIGHT. EASTERLY GALES DEVELOPING OVER NORTON
SOUND TUE MORNING. NE WINDS INCREASING TO GALE OVER PKZ220
BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS MAY BRING 2-6
INCHES OF SNOW TO ZONE 214-215-SOUTH PARTS OF ZONE 212 TUE
MORNING THROUGH WED MORNING. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT CLIMB TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN ZONE 214 AND
SOUTH PARTS OF ZONE 212-215. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
GET AS FAR NORTH AS NOME AS THE FRONT RAPIDLY STRETCHES OUT
EASTWARD...WITH NORTHWARD MOVEMENT STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH
OF NOME BY EARLY WED.

MODERATELY COLD AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DETERMINED BY CLOUD COVER...MOST INTERIOR AREAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF NOV 12