Small Craft Advisory 146, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
133 PM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THROUGH 60 HOURS. MAIN
DIFFERENCES ARE IN EXACT POSITION AND STRENGTH OF MAJOR FEATURES
BUT THE TRENDS LOOK GOOD.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRANSIT ACROSS THE STATE.
CLOSED 554 DAM CENTER BREAKS OFF AND MOVES NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING
WHILE ANOTHER BRANCH OF THE RIDGE SWINGS AROUND OVER THE WEST
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. 524 AM LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THEN INTO THE ARCTIC.
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TONIGHT AND THE
NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY.

SURFACE...1037 MB HIGH NEAR 50N 160W EXTENDS NORTH OT A 1034 MB
CENTER OVER GALENA THEN NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT TO BE OVER CHALKYITSIK SUNDAY MORNING. A 980 MB LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO THE GULF OF ANADYR
SUNDAY MORNING THEN TO WRANGEL ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN NORTHEAST.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
SUNDAY DURING THE DAY THEN DRAG NORTH UP THE WEST COAST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATES. A BRANCH EXTENDING FROM THE
RIDGE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL SWING NORTHEAST OVER THE WEST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY EVENING WITH A 1036 MB CENTER
DEVELOPING OVER GALENA.

ARCTIC COAST...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHWEST COAST AND
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS. STARTING AS SNOW THEN
CHANGING TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST. FROM BARROW EAST
SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY.

WEST COAST...LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR Z207 AND Z213. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 60 MPH.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS SNOW TONIGHT AND CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS AS
MOST AREAS HAVE NOT HAD REALLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO FREEZE THE
GROUND SOLID. ADJACENT AREAS OF OPEN WATER WILL ALSO HELP. SURGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS UP TO 3 FOOT OF SURGE NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THE
BERING STRAIT COAST AND FROM KIVALINA NORTH ON THE CHUKCHI SEA
COAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH FOR COASTAL FLOODING BUT WILL
ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE BERING STRAIT AND CHUKCHI SEA
COAST FROM KIVALINA NORTH.

INTERIOR...ONCE THE STRATUS AND FLURRIES SCOOT OUT OF HERE EXPECT
CLEARING WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MANY AREAS WILL SEE THEIR FIRST BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES IN
THE INTERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME BACKDOOR CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AS
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE YUKON
TERRITORY...OTHERWISE RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ213.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

SDB OCT 12