Gale Warning 75, NWS Fairbanks, AK

663 
FZAK52 PAFG 202233
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
233 PM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-211345-
233 PM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 980 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO
THE GULF OF ANADYR SUNDAY MORNING THEN TO WRANGEL ISLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND SUNDAY DURING THE DAY THEN DRAG NORTH
UP THE WEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATES.

$$

PKZ200-211345-
NORTON SOUND-
233 PM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 FT.
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-211345-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
233 PM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-211345-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
233 PM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-211345-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
233 PM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SDB/MAK OCT 12

588 
FZAK52 PAFG 211134
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
334 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-220245-
334 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
996 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE NORTH TO BE OVER
WRANGEL ISLAND MON AM. 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MON AM. 

$$

PKZ200-220245-
NORTON SOUND-
334 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-220245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
334 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-220245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
334 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 1 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-220245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
334 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 40 KT GUSTING TO 50 KT NEAR BERING STRAIT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

TF/JK OCT 12

002 
FZAK52 PAFG 212203
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
203 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-221230-
203 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1000 MB LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO 400 NM
N OF BARROW BY 4 AM TUE WEAKENING TO 1017 MB. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND MON THROUGH
MON NIGHT.


$$

PKZ200-221230-
NORTON SOUND-
203 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN OR
SNOW. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN OR SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-221230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
203 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-221230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
203 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN OR SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN OR SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-221230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
203 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. RAIN OR SNOW.
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN OR SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

RF OCT 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
137 PM AKDT FRI OCT 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 120 HOURS BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF.
NAM ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 78 HOURS. MODEL EXTENDED
PERIODS PAST 120 HOURS STILL HAVE BIG DIFFERENCES...WILL STICK
WITH THE ECMWF FOR EXTENDED SINCE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS BETTER.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...523 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE PANHANDLE THEN SOUTH OVER THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT THEN OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. A 516 DAM
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. A 528 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE FLOW OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA AND MOVE OVER WRANGEL ISLAND AS A 522 DAM
LOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES AROUND 14C BELOW
IN THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 6C BELOW NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY.
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES EAST 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND
8C BELOW IN THE INTERIOR AND TO AROUND 2C ABOVE ALONG THE COAST AS
FAR NORTH AS POINT HOPE.

SURFACE...A 1004 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS TONIGHT. A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC WITH A 1031 MB CENTER
200 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TO 50N 160W BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THEN TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. A 983 LOW
IN THE WESTERN SEA OF OKHOTSK WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND MERGE WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
A 994 MB LOW WILL SPIN OFF AND MOVE TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY
SUNDAY MORNING THEN TO WRANGEL ISLAND AS A 996 MB LOW BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST...CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL
BE STANDARD FAIR THROUGH SATURDAY. A 1027 LOW DEVELOPS JUST OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND WILL KICK THE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION UP FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS EAST OF DEADHORSE. OFF SHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING FOR POINT LAY EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
COAST WILL SEE SOME WINDS AND PRECIPITATION AS A LOW DEVELOPS AND
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WEST COAST...QUIET TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS
THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST LOOK FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. DEVELOPING STORM WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING THE
WEATHER ALONG THE WEST COAST SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL BEGIN
INCREASING SATURDAY MORNING AND PEAK SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
WILL BE TROUBLESOME FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT...ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST...AND CHUKCHI SEA COAST
FROM KIVALINA NORTH. EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF ELEVATED SURF
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MAY CAUSE SOME EROSION ISSUES IN
THOSE AREAS. WINDS SNAP AROUND TO A MORE SOUTH DIRECTION SUNDAY AS
THEY PEAK AROUND GALE FORCE. THE SEWARD PENINSULA COAST WILL SEE
SOME ELEVATED SURF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER ISSUE DOWN THE ROAD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK OR EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN
FROM NOME SOUTH.

INTERIOR...SHORTWAVES ALONG THE ALCAN WILL PUSH CLOUDS INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR TONIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEARING TO BEGIN IN ERNEST
EARLY SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW
CREATING ISSUES IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND ALASKA RANGE EAST
OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY. ISSUED SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS
AFTER REPORTS OF HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE POCKETS OF FLURRIES FLOATING AROUND WILL BE
HARD TO FORECAST TONIGHT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. PATCHY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE A
CHALLENGE. SOME WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AS STRONG GRADIENT
HAS DEVELOPED BUT THEY TAPER OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL FOR DAYS 3 AND 4...ELEVATED SURF ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR EROSION ISSUES.
OTHERWISE NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ224-AKZ226.
&&

SDB OCT 12