High Surf Advisory 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

764 
WHAK49 PAFG 210448
CFWAFG

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
848 PM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...HIGH SURF THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND CHUKCHI SEA COAST...

A STRONG LOW MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE BERING STRAIT AND CHUKCHI SEA COAST
FROM KIVALINA NORTH.

AKZ207-211400-
/X.CON.PAFG.SU.Y.0010.121021T1800Z-121022T1800Z/
CHUKCHI SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...POINT HOPE...SHISHMAREF...KIVALINA...ESPENBERG
848 PM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO
10 AM AKDT MONDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM
AKDT MONDAY. 

* LOCATION...FROM KIVALINA NORTH ON THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST.

* WAVES AND SURF...WILL CREATE MINOR EROSION.

* TIMING...HEAVIEST SURF WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION IS
EXPECTED. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$

AKZ213-211400-
/X.CON.PAFG.SU.Y.0010.121021T1200Z-121022T0600Z/
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-
INCLUDING...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...TELLER...
WALES...DIOMEDE
848 PM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM AKDT
SUNDAY...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM AKDT
SUNDAY. 

* LOCATION...ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND DIOMEDE.

* WAVES AND SURF...WILL CREATE MINOR EROSION.

* TIMING...HEAVIEST SURF WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY 
  AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION IS
EXPECTED. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$

250 
WHAK49 PAFG 210940
CFWAFG

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
140 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...THE THREAT OF HIGH SURF ON THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST IS
ENDED...

AKZ213-211045-
/X.CAN.PAFG.SU.Y.0010.121021T1200Z-121022T0600Z/
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-
INCLUDING...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...TELLER...
WALES...DIOMEDE
140 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. 

THE THREAT OF HIGH SURF ON THE SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING
STRAIT COAST IS ENDED.

$$

AKZ207-211045-
/X.CAN.PAFG.SU.Y.0010.121021T1800Z-121022T1800Z/
CHUKCHI SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...POINT HOPE...SHISHMAREF...KIVALINA...ESPENBERG
140 AM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. 

THE THREAT OF HIGH SURF ON THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST HAS ENDED.

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
557 AM AKDT SAT OCT 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM AND GFS COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN NEARLY
EXACT AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE BERING SEA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
TONIGHT AND TO THE YUKON TERRITORY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS MODEL
RUNS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE FORECAST THIS SEQUENCE OF
EVENTS VERY WELL.

THE INBOUND WEATHER SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NOW ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATTU / THE WEST END OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLAND CHAIN. / FROM THE LOOKS OF THE GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE GFS MODEL HAS UNDER FORECAST THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS THE LOW TO MOVE NEARLY
STRAIGHT NORTHWARD...TO REACH THE GULF OF ANADYR TONIGHT AND
WRANGEL ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A BELT OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GALE
FORCE WINDS EAST OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF
NORTHERN ALASKA THIS EVENING AND TO REACH ITS PEAK STRENGTH LATE
TONIGHT.

IF IN FACT THIS INCOMING LOW STRENGTHENS MORE THAN THE MODEL HAS
FORECAST IT TO...IT WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE MODEL PREDICTS.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE LIKELY OUTCOME. FOR THIS REASON...THIS
MORNINGS FORECASTS FOR THE WEST COAST INCLUDE BRISK TO GALE FORCE
WINDS FOR A LONGER SPAN OF TIME THAN THE GFS MODEL DOES.

THE LARGE AREA OF THICK CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE INBOUND LOW HAS MOVED
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD IN THE PAST 10 HOURS...FROM THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WHICH
COVER THE ENTIRE WEST COASTAL REGION OF THE REALM WILL BE ABSORBED
INTO THESE ADVANCING FRONTAL CLOUDS AS TODAY WEARS ON. EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST SNOW...AND THEN RAIN...IS EXPECTED OVER THE
COAST SOUTH OF BERING STRAIT.

THERE HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE YUKON DELTA...NORTON SOUND
COAST AND BERING STRAIT. THIS WILL THIN OUT SOME AS THE FRONTAL
CLOUDS ADVANCE OVERHEAD TODAY.

STARTING AROUND NOON YESTERDAY...THE SNOW FALLING OVER THE BERING
STRAIT COAST BECAME MIXED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS CONTINUED
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT AT TIN CITY...WALES AND TELLER. THE
TEMPERATURE ROSE ABOVE FREEZING AT WALES AT MID DAY FRIDAY...AND
TIN CITY ABOUT 4 AM THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR
NOW AT TELLER AND WALES. WHEN IT RESUMES...IT WILL COME MOSTLY AS
RAIN...AND THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING.

TODAYS EARLY MORNING POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
OVERCAST STRATUS NEARLY EVERYWHERE WEST OF BARROW...INDIAN
MOUNTAIN AND MCGRATH. ABOUT HALF OF THE UPPER KOYUK VALLEY...PART
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND MOST OF THE YUKON FLATS AND
FORTYMILE COUNTRY IS ALSO UNDER OVERCAST DECKS OF STRATOCUMULUS.
THE CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY RESILIENT.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY NOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST
BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR.

THE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE INTERIOR...COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LINGERING OPEN WATER ON AREA
RIVERS...HAVE PRODUCED NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ALONG THE RIVERS. THIS MAY WELL RECUR ALONG EASTERN INTERIOR
RIVERS TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE REALM ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. SOME OF THE TEMPERATURE RISE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT. FOR INSTANCE...BARROWS TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO
RISE FROM 3 ABOVE AT 5 AM THIS MORNING TO 24 ABOVE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLDEST REGION IN NORTHERN ALASKA THIS MORNING IS THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE AND THE CENTRAL ARCTIC SLOPE...TEMPERATURES THERE
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4 /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

TF OCT 12