Small Craft Advisory 144, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
137 PM AKDT FRI OCT 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 120 HOURS BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF.
NAM ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 78 HOURS. MODEL EXTENDED
PERIODS PAST 120 HOURS STILL HAVE BIG DIFFERENCES...WILL STICK
WITH THE ECMWF FOR EXTENDED SINCE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS BETTER.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...523 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DRIFT EAST TO THE PANHANDLE THEN SOUTH OVER THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT THEN OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. A 516 DAM
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. A 528 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE FLOW OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA AND MOVE OVER WRANGEL ISLAND AS A 522 DAM
LOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES AROUND 14C BELOW
IN THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 6C BELOW NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY.
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES EAST 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND
8C BELOW IN THE INTERIOR AND TO AROUND 2C ABOVE ALONG THE COAST AS
FAR NORTH AS POINT HOPE.

SURFACE...A 1004 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS TONIGHT. A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC WITH A 1031 MB CENTER
200 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TO 50N 160W BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THEN TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. A 983 LOW
IN THE WESTERN SEA OF OKHOTSK WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND MERGE WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
A 994 MB LOW WILL SPIN OFF AND MOVE TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY
SUNDAY MORNING THEN TO WRANGEL ISLAND AS A 996 MB LOW BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ARCTIC COAST...CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL
BE STANDARD FAIR THROUGH SATURDAY. A 1027 LOW DEVELOPS JUST OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND WILL KICK THE WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION UP FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS EAST OF DEADHORSE. OFF SHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING FOR POINT LAY EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NORTHWEST
COAST WILL SEE SOME WINDS AND PRECIPITATION AS A LOW DEVELOPS AND
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WEST COAST...QUIET TODAY WITH JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. AS
THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST LOOK FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. DEVELOPING STORM WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING THE
WEATHER ALONG THE WEST COAST SATURDAY AS WINDS WILL BEGIN
INCREASING SATURDAY MORNING AND PEAK SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
WILL BE TROUBLESOME FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT...ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST...AND CHUKCHI SEA COAST
FROM KIVALINA NORTH. EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF ELEVATED SURF
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MAY CAUSE SOME EROSION ISSUES IN
THOSE AREAS. WINDS SNAP AROUND TO A MORE SOUTH DIRECTION SUNDAY AS
THEY PEAK AROUND GALE FORCE. THE SEWARD PENINSULA COAST WILL SEE
SOME ELEVATED SURF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS. ANOTHER ISSUE DOWN THE ROAD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK OR EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN
FROM NOME SOUTH.

INTERIOR...SHORTWAVES ALONG THE ALCAN WILL PUSH CLOUDS INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR TONIGHT BUT EXPECT CLEARING TO BEGIN IN ERNEST
EARLY SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW
CREATING ISSUES IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND ALASKA RANGE EAST
OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY. ISSUED SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS
AFTER REPORTS OF HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED SNOWFALL THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE POCKETS OF FLURRIES FLOATING AROUND WILL BE
HARD TO FORECAST TONIGHT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. PATCHY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE A
CHALLENGE. SOME WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AS STRONG GRADIENT
HAS DEVELOPED BUT THEY TAPER OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL FOR DAYS 3 AND 4...ELEVATED SURF ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR EROSION ISSUES.
OTHERWISE NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ224-AKZ226.
&&

SDB OCT 12