Small Craft Advisory 825, NWS Anchorage, AK

880 
FZAK51 PAFC 161552 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
650 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

UPDATED ZONES 125 130 132 138 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170300-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 982 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING WILL MOVE TO 420 NM SOUTH
OF CAPE SUCKLING AT 989 MB FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE SAT
MORNING. A 987 MB LOW WILL FORM 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
SAT MORNING AND MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 980 MB
SUN MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-170300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-170300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-170300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
650 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-170300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  

$$

PKZ130-170300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
650 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT W 20 NEAR KAMISHAK BAY. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 
THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE 
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-170300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
650 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-170300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
650 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES 
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-170300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
650 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-170300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

948 
FZAK51 PAFC 170034
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 991 MB LOW WILL FORM 125 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING TONIGHT 
AND THEN MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND SAT NIGHT AT 
980 MB.

$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER 
RIVER DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
STRONGER GUSTS 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 35 KT
BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THIS
EVENING...WITH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW...SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...ONE
DEEPENING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS
NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A
GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL SETUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
TWO UPPER LOWS MERGE AND DEEPEN AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. A LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX ORIGINATING OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER ALASKA FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH
IT A DEEP AND COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR...WITH INTENSE OFFSHORE GAP WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO
THE SMALLER DETAILS LATE SATURDAY AND BEYOND...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA LOW.
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA...THE NAM WAS FAVORED DUE TO ITS SUPERIOR
HANDLING OF STRONG OFFSHORE GAP FLOWS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA...THE ECMWF WAS FAVORED DUE TO ITS BETTER HANDLING OF A COMPLEX
BLOCKING PATTERN AND A STRONG FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. AN
ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER COOK INLET AND THE
KENAI PENINSULA...AND THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WILL SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND. AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS...INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...PEAKING MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THROUGH FAVORED
LOCATIONS INCLUDING COPPER RIVER DELTA...THOMPSON PASS...MATANUSKA
VALLEY...WHITTIER...SEWARD...AND VALDEZ. WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING
40 TO 60 MPH THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RECENT SNOWFALL. MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COAST
AS ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A VERY DEEP UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING. SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP THE REGION BLUSTERY INTO FRIDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH THIS EVENING NEAR BRISTOL BAY. WIND CHILLS MAY FALL INTO
THE -20 F RANGE BY TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THIS EVENING...WITH A STORM FORCE FRONT PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD THEN
STALLING AND WEAKENING JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS FRIDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND
THE CHUCKCHI SEA THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
PREDOMINANT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY...WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS PATTERN
WILL FAVOR MOSTLY DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 131
MARINE...STORMS 155 185 411 412
         GALES 127 128 130 132 150 160 165 176 180 352 413 414
         FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 140 141 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AHSENMACHER NOV 12