Small Craft Advisory 824, NWS Anchorage, AK

732 
FZAK52 PAFC 170016
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171500-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN 
AND EASTERN BERING TONIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SAT NIGHT AND SUN WHILE A LOW DEEPENS IN 
THE GULF. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA 
AND THE EASTERN BERING.
$$

PKZ150-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
ALONG THE COAST. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
COAST. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NW WIND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NW WIND 25
KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-171500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-171500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-171500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-171500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BECOMING W 30 KT DURING
THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-171500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-171500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE THIS EVENING...
THEN BECOMING W 20 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THIS
EVENING...WITH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW...SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...ONE
DEEPENING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH ANOTHER DIVING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS
NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A
GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL SETUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
TWO UPPER LOWS MERGE AND DEEPEN AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. A LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX ORIGINATING OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER ALASKA FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH
IT A DEEP AND COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR...WITH INTENSE OFFSHORE GAP WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO
THE SMALLER DETAILS LATE SATURDAY AND BEYOND...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA LOW.
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA...THE NAM WAS FAVORED DUE TO ITS SUPERIOR
HANDLING OF STRONG OFFSHORE GAP FLOWS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA...THE ECMWF WAS FAVORED DUE TO ITS BETTER HANDLING OF A COMPLEX
BLOCKING PATTERN AND A STRONG FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. AN
ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS FORMED OVER COOK INLET AND THE
KENAI PENINSULA...AND THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WILL SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS INLAND. AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS...INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP...PEAKING MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THROUGH FAVORED
LOCATIONS INCLUDING COPPER RIVER DELTA...THOMPSON PASS...MATANUSKA
VALLEY...WHITTIER...SEWARD...AND VALDEZ. WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING
40 TO 60 MPH THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RECENT SNOWFALL. MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COAST
AS ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A VERY DEEP UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING. SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP THE REGION BLUSTERY INTO FRIDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH THIS EVENING NEAR BRISTOL BAY. WIND CHILLS MAY FALL INTO
THE -20 F RANGE BY TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THIS EVENING...WITH A STORM FORCE FRONT PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD THEN
STALLING AND WEAKENING JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS FRIDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND
THE CHUCKCHI SEA THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
PREDOMINANT FLOW PATTERN WILL BE NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY...WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS PATTERN
WILL FAVOR MOSTLY DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 131
MARINE...STORMS 155 185 411 412
         GALES 127 128 130 132 150 160 165 176 180 352 413 414
         FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 140 141 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AHSENMACHER NOV 12