Small Craft Advisory 822, NWS Anchorage, AK

192 
FZAK52 PAFC 160625 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
925 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

UPDATED ZONE 155

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161500-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-161500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-161500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
925 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DIMINISHING TO N 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-161500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF 160W...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. E OF 160W...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-161500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-161500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-161500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-161500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-161500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-161500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-161500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SW 35 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 17 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-161500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. E
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. E OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-161500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

JM

244 
FZAK52 PAFC 161210
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170300-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 977 MB LOW 500 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA
AND WEAKEN SATURDAY MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND WEAKEN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-170300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-170300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND
10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-170300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-170300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. WEST OF COLD BAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF PORT MOLLER. FREEZING SPRAY EAST OF
PORT MOLLER IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-170300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-170300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-170300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-170300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS
OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-170300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-170300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-170300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 45 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-170300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES PARKED OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS MORNING.
WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH ARE A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF
VARYING STRENGTH. A FILLING SURFACE/UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THERE
ARE TWO POTENT DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONG-WAVE. THE MAIN EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE INCREASINGLY
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVES. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL ONLY ACT TO REINFORCE THE GENERAL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A CLOSED OFF UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER
SIBERIA WHILE A POTENT KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES INTO THE FAR WESTERN
BERING FROM THE SOUTH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING LIKELY DUE TO
A SOMEWHAT BLOCKY TYPE PATTERN WITH CLOSED HIGH OVER SIBERIA AND
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER KAMCHATKA. THE SIBERIAN HIGH KEEPS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM PROGRESSING TOO FAR INTO THE BERING SEA
WHILE THE MAINLAND TROUGHING STAYS IN PLACE AS LOWS FILL IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...STEADY RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL PERSIST TODAY AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW SLOWLY DECAY.
A NEW SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH...SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
GULF. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD USHERING IN A COLDER AIR MASS ALOFT INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE
RESPONSE TO THE COLD AIR SPILLING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN OUTFLOW/GAP TYPE WINDS ALONG THE FAVORED REGIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...THOMPSON PASS...COPPER RIVER
DELTA...VALDEZ...AS WELL AS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND SEWARD/WHITTIER.
DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER FOR MOST LOCATIONS THE REST
OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE BRISTOL BAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
THIS MORNING LEAVING ONE LAST SHOT OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY. BEHIND THE WAVE...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MIX
DOWN GUSTY WINDS FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTAINS...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
TODAY. A KAMCHATKA LOW WILL SWING A FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND KAMCHATKA
LOW TO THE WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS NOT UNLIKE THE CURRENT SITUATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 155 185
         GALE 127 128 130 132 150 160 165 170 176 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL NOV 12