Small Craft Advisory 823, NWS Anchorage, AK

965 
FZAK51 PAFC 161225
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170300-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 982 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING WILL MOVE TO 420 NM SOUTH
OF CAPE SUCKLING AT 989 MB FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE SAT
MORNING. A 987 MB LOW WILL FORM 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
SAT MORNING AND MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 980 MB
SUN MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-170300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-170300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-170300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-170300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  

$$

PKZ130-170300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-170300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-170300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-170300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-170300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 16 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST THU NOV 15 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES PARKED OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS MORNING.
WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH ARE A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OF
VARYING STRENGTH. A FILLING SURFACE/UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THERE
ARE TWO POTENT DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONG-WAVE. THE MAIN EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE INCREASINGLY
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS COLD ADVECTION SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVES. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL ONLY ACT TO REINFORCE THE GENERAL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A CLOSED OFF UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER
SIBERIA WHILE A POTENT KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES INTO THE FAR WESTERN
BERING FROM THE SOUTH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING LIKELY DUE TO
A SOMEWHAT BLOCKY TYPE PATTERN WITH CLOSED HIGH OVER SIBERIA AND
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER KAMCHATKA. THE SIBERIAN HIGH KEEPS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM PROGRESSING TOO FAR INTO THE BERING SEA
WHILE THE MAINLAND TROUGHING STAYS IN PLACE AS LOWS FILL IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...STEADY RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL PERSIST TODAY AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW SLOWLY DECAY.
A NEW SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH...SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
GULF. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD USHERING IN A COLDER AIR MASS ALOFT INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE
RESPONSE TO THE COLD AIR SPILLING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN OUTFLOW/GAP TYPE WINDS ALONG THE FAVORED REGIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...THOMPSON PASS...COPPER RIVER
DELTA...VALDEZ...AS WELL AS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND SEWARD/WHITTIER.
DECREASING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER FOR MOST LOCATIONS THE REST
OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE BRISTOL BAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
THIS MORNING LEAVING ONE LAST SHOT OF SNOW TO MAINLY THE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY. BEHIND THE WAVE...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MIX
DOWN GUSTY WINDS FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTAINS...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
TODAY. A KAMCHATKA LOW WILL SWING A FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
ALREADY IN PLACE. UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND KAMCHATKA
LOW TO THE WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS NOT UNLIKE THE CURRENT SITUATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 155 185
         GALE 127 128 130 132 150 160 165 170 176 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL NOV 12