Small Craft Advisory 807, NWS Anchorage, AK

548 
FZAK52 PAFC 110009
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111500-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1005 MB LOW 125 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 275 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND AT 1005 MB SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN
REMAIN STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE MON. A 984 MB LOW 575 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 85 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA AT 964 MB
MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-111500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING E 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-111500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-111500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
UNALASKA E...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-111500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 38 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-111500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. NORTH AND WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...WIND BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NORTH AND WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT
BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W WIND 15 KT OTHERWISE. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-111500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
425 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON IS THE STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE AKPEN NEAR COLD BAY. THE
LOW HAS STOPPED ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS PRIMARILY RAIN FROM THE
EASTERN BERING/AKPEN INTO SOUTHWEST AK AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AK...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA INTO ANCHORAGE...THE MAT-SU VALLEY...AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AKPEN TONIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON
SATURDAY AS IT WEAKENS...WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY
HAVE YET TO MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY
AND HAS REMAINED IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING FOR
ANCHORAGE SHOWS ONLY A VERY SHALLOW WARM LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS MORE LIKELY TO
FALL AS SNOW. IN GENERAL...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK THROUGH TONIGHT...MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN OVER ANCHORAGE AND THE
MAT-SU. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FOR INLAND AREAS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST AS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS OVER THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED FOR PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
AREAS OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING AND AKPEN AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND TRANSITORY
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN BERING EARLY TO
MID WEEK...KEEPING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA INTO THE EXTENDED TERM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE... GALE WARNING 120 130 140 170 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB NOV 12