Gale Warning 750, NWS Anchorage, AK

275 
FZAK51 PAFC 101247
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110300-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 993 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 180 NM NORTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND SAT
MORNING AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO 60 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 1003
MB MON MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-110300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 45 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 45 KT ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-110300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-110300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT S OF NAKED ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-110300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-110300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.SUN...E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-110300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-110300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-110300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 7
FT...EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 7
FT...EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-110300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
630 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOW AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WITH A RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A LOW
TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS STREAMING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TO THE EASTERN BERING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS JUST
EAST OF DUTCH HARBOR BRINGING GALE STRENGTH WINDS ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FALLING AS
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND AS RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE ALASKA PENINSULA...AND THE WESTERN GULF. THE
COASTAL AREAS AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF ARE SLOWLY WARMING AND SO
THERE ARE AREAS OF BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM MODEL...THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THE
OUTLIER BRINGING THE UPPER LOW INTO BRISTOL BAY...NOW TRACKS ALONG
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKING THE LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE WILL
DEVELOP A TRIPLE POINT EAST OF KODIAK AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF. THE
GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THE NAM AND ECMWF
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW THAT IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SOLUTION IS THAT THE STRONGER GFS WOULD AFFECT
THE COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND WITH STRONGER WIND. HOWEVER THIS MODEL
SOLUTION IS NOT LIKELY...AS THE ARRAY OF OTHER LOCAL AND GLOBAL MODEL
DATA AVAILABLE SUPPORT THE FEATURE OF A WEAKER SURFACE LOW. THE
FORECAST SOLUTION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF WATERS USED A
COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE
NAM AND ECMWF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. FOR SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WEST THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THE COMBINATION OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS WORKED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SNOW AND RAIN AND AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CHANGE
SNOW OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. TIMING OF THE CHANGE FROM SNOW TO RAIN SHOULD LIKELY OCCUR BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL AREAS AND JUST INLAND. HOWEVER...THE
COLD SURFACE LAYER MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY IS OUT THROUGH 5 AM SATURDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
FURTHER INLAND WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER.
SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WITH A FEW VALLEYS EAST OF THE KUSKOKWIM RANGE STILL BELOW
ZERO. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF SATURDAY
MORNING THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME INTERMITTENT AND GUSTS WILL
TAPER OFF AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...STRONG WINDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BECOME ALL NORTHWESTERLY ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE
LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
BE UNDER WEAK RIDGING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE AN EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY MIDWEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 101 111.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 155 165 170 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KH NOV 12