Gale Warning 753, NWS Anchorage, AK

465 
FZAK51 PAFC 110001
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 993 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DRIFT TO 175 NM
SOUTH OF SITKA AT 1008 MB MON AFTERNOON. A 1008 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
100 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MON.
$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT S OF NAKED ISLAND 
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 15 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 10 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
425 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON IS THE STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE AKPEN NEAR COLD BAY. THE
LOW HAS STOPPED ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS PRIMARILY RAIN FROM THE
EASTERN BERING/AKPEN INTO SOUTHWEST AK AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AK...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA INTO ANCHORAGE...THE MAT-SU VALLEY...AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AKPEN TONIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON
SATURDAY AS IT WEAKENS...WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SURFACE LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY
HAVE YET TO MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY
AND HAS REMAINED IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING FOR
ANCHORAGE SHOWS ONLY A VERY SHALLOW WARM LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS MORE LIKELY TO
FALL AS SNOW. IN GENERAL...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK THROUGH TONIGHT...MIXING WITH RAIN OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN OVER ANCHORAGE AND THE
MAT-SU. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FOR INLAND AREAS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST AS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS OVER THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED FOR PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED
AREAS OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING AND AKPEN AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND TRANSITORY
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN BERING EARLY TO
MID WEEK...KEEPING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA INTO THE EXTENDED TERM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE... GALE WARNING 120 130 140 170 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CB NOV 12