Small Craft Advisory 158, NWS Anchorage, AK

074 
FZAK51 PAFC 282353
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291500-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 995 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL DRIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE
NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WED EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WED NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THU
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-291500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-291500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-291500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-291500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-291500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT NW WIND 40 KT EAST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS IN THE EVENING. SEAS  10 FT EXCEPT 16 FT E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-291500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-291500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT..NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-291500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-291500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC AND GFS ARE PREFERRED OVER THE
NAM BECAUSE THE NAM KEEP THE SYSTEM A BIT WEAKER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND, KENAI PENINSULA
AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF SEWARD IS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CANADA EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN ALASKA WHILE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE LOW CENTERED NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND COVERS
NEARLY ALL OF THE MAINLAND. ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. A STRONG ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS DRIFTING EAST.

SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF ARE FALLING MAINLY
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, KENAI PENINSULA, THE LOWER SUSITNA
VALLEY AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN ALASKA, THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD DRY AIR
FLOWING SOUTH ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THE
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE BERING WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS NORTH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA BUT WILL RESTRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY.

.SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF...THE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE GULF AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN PARTIALLY CLEAR
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSISTS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS NORTH TO WEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE SKY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST AS A
DRY AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH MOVES OVER THE AREA. AREAS OF SNOW ALONG
THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUESDAY. SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBILOFS TONIGHT. WINDS AND SNOW WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF
ATKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN, SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL INTO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW IN
THE GULF WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE PRIBILOFS.
MARINE...STORM 130 172 175 176
         GALE 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM FEB 12