Blizzard Watch 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

264 
WWAK42 PAFC 280642
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
942 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

AKZ195-281945-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0025.120228T1200Z-120228T2200Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0037.120228T1200Z-120228T2100Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
942 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKST TUESDAY. THE
BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES ACCUMULATION.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...EAST 35 TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND NOON TUESDAY. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
  EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS AND SNOW WILL
  BOTH DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. DRIVING MAY BECOME
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ155-281800-
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-120228T1800Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
942 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST TUESDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST TUESDAY. 

* TEMPERATURES...10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW

* WIND...NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE 
  EVENING. 

* WIND CHILL...35 BELOW TO 45 BELOW

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
453 AM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A TIGHTLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER THE CENTRAL KENAI
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH SLOPE CONTINUES TO DIG ITS WAY
SOUTH AND WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING A RENEWED SHOT
OF COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OUT WEST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING SEA...AND WILL PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN BERING SEA. STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ARE RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST.

STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR KAMCHATKA WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT
NORTH AND EAST TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND THEN INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL BERING AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT RAPIDLY THEN WEAKENS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DOWNSTREAM WEAKENING RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH MOST FEATURES. IT APPEARS THE 06Z
GFS IS DOING A MUCH BETTER JOB IN DEPICTING THE STACKED LOW OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA WHICH HAS BEEN CAUSING FORECAST HEADACHES OVER THE
LAST 18 TO 24 HOURS. ESSENTIALLY...THIS STACKED LOW PRESSURE IS MORE
COMPACT...STRONGER...AND FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE
BEEN DEPICTING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A LENGTHY
DELAY IN THE START OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA
VALLEY AREAS...BUT ALAS ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS STARTED FALLING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR OR SOUTH OF GIRDWOOD OVER THE PENINSULA
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY AS
IT WEAKENS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW IN WEAK COLD ADVECTION REGIME FOR THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL THROUGH MIDDAY OR SO BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GENERAL TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND A GENERAL DRYING TREND.

SOUTHWEST...

LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL HELP USHER IN A
BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WILL KEEP BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERY ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
CLEARING TREND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY FROM DUTCH HARBOR AND THE PRIBILOFS AND POINTS EASTWARD. HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN
WEAKEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN BERING BY LATE TUESDAY. A STRONG STORM
FORCE FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND
MOVES NORTH AND EAST TO THE WEST-CENTRAL BERING TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONTAL BAND WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE LONG RANGE PATTERN FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL MAINLY
INVOLVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE MAINLAND AND OUT OVER THE
BERING. AN ACTIVE JET STREAM WILL PUSH SYSTEMS EAST ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECT
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE MAINLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...155
MARINE...GALES...121 132 138 150 155 160 165 180 170 171 172 176 185
         STORMS...130 175
         HVY FRZG SPRY...121 130 132 138 140 150 155 165 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29/CC FEB 12