Small Craft Advisory 156, NWS Anchorage, AK

387 
FZAK52 PAFC 281242
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-290300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 365 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA
AT 985 MB BEFORE MOVING TO EASTERN RUSSIA. A STRONG ASSOCIATED FRONT
FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL BERING TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA TUE AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATES
TUE NIGHT. A 993 MB LOW 315 NM SOUTH OF ADAK TUE EVENING STRENGTHENS
TO 971 MB 40 NM EAST OF ADAK WED AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO NEAR
NIKOLSKI AT 970 MB LATE WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES DURING
THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-290300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-290300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-290300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-290300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-290300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-290300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING W 50 KT PACIFIC SIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-290300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24
FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-290300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-290300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
453 AM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A TIGHTLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER THE CENTRAL KENAI
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH SLOPE CONTINUES TO DIG ITS WAY
SOUTH AND WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING A RENEWED SHOT
OF COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OUT WEST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING SEA...AND WILL PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN BERING SEA. STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ARE RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST.

STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR KAMCHATKA WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT
NORTH AND EAST TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND THEN INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL BERING AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT RAPIDLY THEN WEAKENS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DOWNSTREAM WEAKENING RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH MOST FEATURES. IT APPEARS THE 06Z
GFS IS DOING A MUCH BETTER JOB IN DEPICTING THE STACKED LOW OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA WHICH HAS BEEN CAUSING FORECAST HEADACHES OVER THE
LAST 18 TO 24 HOURS. ESSENTIALLY...THIS STACKED LOW PRESSURE IS MORE
COMPACT...STRONGER...AND FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE
BEEN DEPICTING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A LENGTHY
DELAY IN THE START OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA
VALLEY AREAS...BUT ALAS ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS STARTED FALLING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR OR SOUTH OF GIRDWOOD OVER THE PENINSULA
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND THEN REMAIN STATIONARY AS
IT WEAKENS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW IN WEAK COLD ADVECTION REGIME FOR THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL THROUGH MIDDAY OR SO BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GENERAL TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE FLOW
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND A GENERAL DRYING TREND.

SOUTHWEST...

LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL HELP USHER IN A
BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WILL KEEP BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERY ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
CLEARING TREND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY FROM DUTCH HARBOR AND THE PRIBILOFS AND POINTS EASTWARD. HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST AND THEN
WEAKEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN BERING BY LATE TUESDAY. A STRONG STORM
FORCE FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND
MOVES NORTH AND EAST TO THE WEST-CENTRAL BERING TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONTAL BAND WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE LONG RANGE PATTERN FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL MAINLY
INVOLVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE MAINLAND AND OUT OVER THE
BERING. AN ACTIVE JET STREAM WILL PUSH SYSTEMS EAST ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECT
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE MAINLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...155
MARINE...GALES...121 132 138 150 155 160 165 180 170 171 172 176 185
         STORMS...130 175
         HVY FRZG SPRY...121 130 132 138 140 150 155 165 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29/CC FEB 12