Small Craft Advisory 157, NWS Anchorage, AK

922 
FZAK52 PAFC 282353
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-291500-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. A 1000 MB LOW 600 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA ISLAND WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 967 MB 80 NM EAST OF ADAK WED AFTERNOON THEN TURN
EAST AND WEAKEN TO 975 MB NEAR CHIGNIK THU AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ150-291500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-291500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-291500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-291500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-291500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-291500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-291500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 10 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 
4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-291500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT BY LATE EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BERING SIDE...SW 60 KT PACIFIC SIDE.
BERING SIDE...SEAS 16 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 28 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-291500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-291500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-291500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-291500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC AND GFS ARE PREFERRED OVER THE
NAM BECAUSE THE NAM KEEP THE SYSTEM A BIT WEAKER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND, KENAI PENINSULA
AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF SEWARD IS
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CANADA EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN ALASKA WHILE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE LOW CENTERED NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND COVERS
NEARLY ALL OF THE MAINLAND. ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. A STRONG ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS DRIFTING EAST.

SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF ARE FALLING MAINLY
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, KENAI PENINSULA, THE LOWER SUSITNA
VALLEY AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN ALASKA, THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD DRY AIR
FLOWING SOUTH ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THE
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE BERING WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS NORTH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA BUT WILL RESTRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY.

.SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF...THE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE GULF AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN PARTIALLY CLEAR
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSISTS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS NORTH TO WEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE SKY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST AS A
DRY AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH MOVES OVER THE AREA. AREAS OF SNOW ALONG
THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUESDAY. SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBILOFS TONIGHT. WINDS AND SNOW WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH OF
ATKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN, SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL INTO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW IN
THE GULF WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE PRIBILOFS.
MARINE...STORM 130 172 175 176
         GALE 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM FEB 12