Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
413 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WELL NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA TO JUST SOUTH OF DALLAS. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AND WILL POSE
MAINLY AN ELEVATED HAIL THREAT.

THE WARM FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING
AND THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES
IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HINGE ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
FRONT CAN GET. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO KEEP THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BUT AT LEAST SOUTHERN PARTS OF CHOCTAW
COUNTY MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO RUN THE RISK
OF A TORNADIC SUPERCELL.

SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW AS SOME PLACES MAY RECEIVE AN INCH
OF RAIN ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED AND IN SOME CASES FLOODED
GROUND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RULE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE AREA.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM HOLDING BACK IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  59  43  75 /  60  50   0   0
FSM   57  59  42  74 /  70  50   0   0
MLC   55  62  40  75 /  60  40   0   0
BVO   49  59  39  75 /  60  50   0   0
FYV   51  57  38  69 /  70  60   0   0
BYV   52  57  40  69 /  70  60   0   0
MKO   52  59  40  74 /  70  50   0   0
MIO   51  59  41  71 /  60  50   0   0
F10   52  59  41  75 /  60  50   0   0
HHW   61  65  42  76 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
509 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED...
...HISTORIC FLOODING ONGOING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH.
	ONSET...AFTER 6 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OF A FAYETTVILLE TO MCALESTER
                                LINE.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

RIVER FLOOD.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...RIVERS CURRENTLY IN MAJOR FLOOD AND AT OR NEAR
               HISTORIC LEVELS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS
HIGHLY PROBABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE FELT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG TRACK AND
DAMAGING TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS. THE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE
RED RIVER THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG MID LEVEL JET
STREAK PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO THE HIGH RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THE HIGH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
MID LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND POSSIBLY INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...HOWEVER THE
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY COMPLICATE THE FRONTAL LOCATION.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH TORNADIC POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT. THE TORNADIC RISK WILL DIMINISH ACROSS AREAS FURTHER REMOVED
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...HOWEVER SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY RISK.

FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE WORSENED BY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS QUICKLY PRODUCING DANGEROUS
IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ALSO...HISTORIC FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG SOME LARGER RIVERS...AND
THESE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL BE EVEN SLOWER TO DECREASE WITH THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK WILL BE REQUIRED.
ALL COMMUNICATION CHANNELS SHOULD BE UTILIZED INCLUDING
RADIO AND INTERNET SERVICES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY BENEATH
THE PASSING UPPER STORM CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING ON SATURDAY...WHEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
432 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

OKZ049-053-262215-
CHOCTAW OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
432 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CHOCTAW AND WESTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 433 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF DARWIN...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DARWIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3414 9597 3417 9597 3417 9579 3451 9579
      3452 9578 3452 9568 3460 9567 3460 9551
      3411 9580
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 197DEG 29KT 3418 9585

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
438 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

OKZ072-074>076-262230-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
438 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN HASKELL...NORTHERN LE FLORE AND NORTHEASTERN LATIMER

AT 438 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF LEQUIRE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...LEQUIRE...KEOTA...
SALLISAW...GANS...SHADY POINT...MILTON...PANAMA...BOKOSHE...SPIRO...
POCOLA...SCULLYVILLE AND COWLINGTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3552 9483 3524 9444 3497 9493 3505 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 216DEG 34KT 3507 9501

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