Areal Flood Warning 12, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
510 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AND HISTORIC FLOODING ONGOING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FORT SMITH TO MCALESTER.
	ONSET...AFTER 6 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST
        CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

RIVER FLOOD.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...RIVERS CURRENTLY IN MAJOR FLOOD AND AT OR NEAR
               HISTORIC LEVELS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING NEAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS INCLUDING LONG TRACK TORNADOES.  THIS ROUND OF STORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK
PASSING ATOP A WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
RED RIVER BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL JET STREAK
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  AS THIS OCCURS THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THOUGH THE TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL COMPLICATE THE FRONTAL LOCATION.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TORNADOES LIKELY IN VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONT.  THE TORNADIC RISK WILL DIMINISH FURTHER
NORTHWARD...HOWEVER SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY RISK.

FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE WORSENED BY
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL
QUICKLY PRODUCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  ALSO...HISTORIC FLOODING IS
ONGOING ALONG SOME LARGER RIVERS...AND THESE HIGH WATER
LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE WITH THE EXPECTED RAINS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK WILL BE REQUIRED.
ALL COMMUNICATION CHANNELS SHOULD BE UTILIZED INCLUDING
RADIO AND INTERNET SERVICES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BENEATH THE PASSING UPPER STORM CENTER.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURNING ON SATURDAY...WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.