Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Tulsa, OK

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Madison County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1103 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING BUT STILL DEALING WITH
CONSIDERABLE WATER ISSUES OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AERIAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME OF THEM LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THE OVERALL THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED AS WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER EAST TEXAS AS
POTENT UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BRING WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY NEAR I-20 IN EASTERN
TEXAS...TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WILL BE
VERY VOLATILE AND WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR OUTBREAK OF DAMAGING
SEVERE WEATHER...THUS HOW MUCH OF OUR CWA IS IMPACTED HINGES ON
EVENTUAL WARM FRONTAL POSITION.

CURRENT FORECAST GOOD OVERALL...BUT WILL ADJUST HIGH TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST BRIEFLY ACROSS NE OK THIS
MORNING...AND LONGER ACROSS FAR NW AR SITES. ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO MVFR RANGE AND LOWER WITHIN THE
MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND RAINFALL THAT WILL
AGGRAVATE THE HISTORIC FLOODING TAKING PLACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS PRECIP HAS ENDED AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN TEXAS THIS MORNING.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A 130 KT 250 MB
JET DIVING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS CREATING A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
SURGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
INSTABILITIES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA.

RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WHILE THE
PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT SEEM OVERLY EXCESSIVE...THEY POSE
A HUGE PROBLEM AS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING MAJOR AND EVEN HISTORIC FLOODING.
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. HOWEVER...IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME WITH LATER UPDATES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME ON SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SLATED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE AID OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT COULD HANG UP ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS ON SUNDAY BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  50  66  46 /  20  70  50  10
FSM   73  57  67  45 /  50  70  50  10
MLC   72  54  65  45 /  30  70  40  10
BVO   65  50  65  42 /  10  70  40  10
FYV   66  51  62  40 /  30  70  60  10
BYV   67  50  59  43 /  30  70  60  10
MKO   64  54  65  44 /  30  70  50  10
MIO   65  50  64  44 /  20  70  50  10
F10   65  53  65  46 /  20  70  40  10
HHW   75  62  71  46 /  30  60  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
510 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AND HISTORIC FLOODING ONGOING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FORT SMITH TO MCALESTER.
	ONSET...AFTER 6 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST
        CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

RIVER FLOOD.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...RIVERS CURRENTLY IN MAJOR FLOOD AND AT OR NEAR
               HISTORIC LEVELS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING NEAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS INCLUDING LONG TRACK TORNADOES.  THIS ROUND OF STORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK
PASSING ATOP A WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
RED RIVER BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL JET STREAK
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  AS THIS OCCURS THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THOUGH THE TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL COMPLICATE THE FRONTAL LOCATION.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TORNADOES LIKELY IN VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONT.  THE TORNADIC RISK WILL DIMINISH FURTHER
NORTHWARD...HOWEVER SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY RISK.

FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE WORSENED BY
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.  A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL
QUICKLY PRODUCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  ALSO...HISTORIC FLOODING IS
ONGOING ALONG SOME LARGER RIVERS...AND THESE HIGH WATER
LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE WITH THE EXPECTED RAINS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK WILL BE REQUIRED.
ALL COMMUNICATION CHANNELS SHOULD BE UTILIZED INCLUDING
RADIO AND INTERNET SERVICES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BENEATH THE PASSING UPPER STORM CENTER.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURNING ON SATURDAY...WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.