Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE VALID PERIOD. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND IN
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MORE COMMON AT KFSM AND KMLC THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SE OK...WITH ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF
STRONG WINDS EXTENDING WELL NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE STRENGTHENING JUST NORTH OF OK/KS BORDER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NORTHERN AREA OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS WITHIN THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS EXPANDING THIS CONVECTION AND DEVELOPING IT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST IN
SOME FORM THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH RENEWED STRENGTHENING
LATER TODAY AS AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSES...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTH OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT
EARLY...WITH A GROWING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEEPENS. AGAIN THE TORNADIC RISK WILL BE LARGELY INDIVIDUAL CELL
DRIVEN BY ANY PERIODIC DEVIANT MOTION OR POSSIBLE BOUNDARY
INTERACTION LEFT FROM RECENT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLAY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS YIELDING BROAD LIFT
OVERHEAD. DESPITE THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MODELS
MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL ENSURE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
A CONTINUED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BECOME
AN INCREASING CONCERN. AS OF NOW...THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
VERY LOCALIZED AND NO FAVORED AREA HAS BECOME OVERLY SATURATED.
THAT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND ONCE THESE AREAS ARE
IDENTIFIED...THEN FLOOD WATCHES ARE LIKELY.

THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE TOO WILL PROVIDE A
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE...AND CURRENT MODEL DATA SUGGEST THIS EVENT
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT.

THE PATTERN SETTLES FOR A FEW DAYS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHEN THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT IS SCHEDULED TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
516 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-232330-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
516 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
        WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT SNAKES
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO WILL EXIST.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECAY LATE IN THE EVENING AND THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED NORTH OF
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP TODAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF CONCERN
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT AS THE GROUND BECOMES MORE SATURATED.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. AN EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINALLY COME
TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS LAST SHORTWAVE FINALLY USHERS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

DURING THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BOUTS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD COME
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GROUND BECOME MORES SATURATED.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLY RIVER FLOODING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

ARZ029-OKZ076-231445-
LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-
915 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

AT 914 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BRADEN TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF PANAMA...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...CAMERON...PANAMA...ROCK ISLAND...POCOLA...SCULLYVILLE...
BRADEN...MILL CREEK...HACKETT...BARLING...LAVACA...
JENSON...EXCELSIOR...BONANZA...JENNY LIND...RYE HILL AND THE SOUTH
SIDE OF FORT SMITH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE FORT SMITH AREA WITH THIS LINE.

LAT...LON 3510 9443 3514 9470 3531 9453 3531 9450
      3534 9450 3535 9449 3535 9414
TIME...MOT...LOC 1414Z 276DEG 21KT 3528 9448 3519 9460